{"area":{"county":"Santa Clara County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"santa-clara-ca","metro":"San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":1420633},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":1520611},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":1552675},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":1638396},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":1633995},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":1490600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":1501542},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":1525862},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":1581747},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":1598410},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":1607681},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":1574443},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":1640361},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":1673775},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":1644732},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":1647284},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":1617186},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":1624344},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":1721446},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":1650541},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":1590900}],"latest":1590900,"yoy":-1.6254160003858555,"fiveYr":11.985291063913058,"sinceStart":442.29927529809584,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":3272}],"latest":3272,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":164281,"population":1902047,"povertyRate":7.1064670048100105,"medianHomeValue":1490600,"medianGrossRent":2857,"medianPropertyTax":10001},"hud":{"county":"Santa Clara County","year":"2027","perUnit":3272,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":297608,"ratePer100k":377.37568791544925},"propertyCrime":{"total":1224544,"ratePer100k":1552.757769894411},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":40.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.2900857699084565,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":1590900,"monthlyRent":3272,"grossRent":3272,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":318180,"loan":1272720,"mortgagePI":8254.837694642994,"monthlyTax":889.57825,"taxRatePct":0.671,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,490,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":861.7375000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":163.60000000000002,"egi":3108.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":327.20000000000005,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":163.60000000000002,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":163.60000000000002,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":2405.7157500000003,"noi":702.6842499999998,"totalExpenses":10660.553444642996,"cashFlow":-7552.153444642994,"annualCf":-90625.84133571593,"cocReturn":-28.482570034482347,"capRate":0.5300277201584007},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-7797.553444642994,"delta":-245,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-7650.313444642995,"delta":-98,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-7767.587819642995,"delta":-215,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-8858.836073076927,"delta":-1307,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −24.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-8158.249712869454,"delta":-606,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-8858.836073076927,"baselineCashFlow":-7552.153444642994,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.2900857699084565,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":300858.9150680699,"totalCashOutlay":1297936.908764568,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1864136.3759954753,"equityBuilt":708666.0456736286,"netCostOfBuying":907450.8630909394,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":606591.9480228694},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":9.684017019618825,"price":1590900,"medianIncome":164281,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.671,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,490,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":1590900,"secondary":1490600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.07,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":3272,"secondary":2857,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1490600,"high":1590900}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2857,"high":3272}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 2.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1490600,"high":1590900}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2857,"high":3272}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Santa Clara County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 40.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Santa Clara County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 40.5x, Santa Clara County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Santa Clara County?","a":"The typical home value in Santa Clara County is about $1,590,900 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.6% year-over-year, and up 12.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Santa Clara County?","a":"The typical rent in Santa Clara County is about $3,272/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Santa Clara County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Santa Clara County by about $606,592 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Santa Clara County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Santa Clara County's median home value is 9.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Santa Clara County?","a":"Santa Clara County's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,490,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $1,590,900 median home is roughly $890/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Santa Clara County, CA was $1,590,900 as of April 2026, down 1.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Santa Clara County, CA was $3,272/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Santa Clara County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 40.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=santa-clara-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=santa-clara-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:51:50.965Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":1590900,"countyFmr":3272,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[{"city":"San Jose","state":"CA"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}