{"area":{"county":"San Luis Obispo County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"san-luis-obispo-ca","metro":"San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":685962},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":724453},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":747645},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":771592},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":833563},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":824700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":819055},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":824826},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":836062},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":860297},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":875561},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":881296},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":879983},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":899526},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":893053},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":907886},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":905746},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":921891},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":928075},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":909018},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":936525}],"latest":936525,"yoy":3.398193312473916,"fiveYr":36.527242033815284,"sinceStart":1317.0878222975427,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2720}],"latest":2720,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":97446,"population":281555,"povertyRate":12.905574431542396,"medianHomeValue":824700,"medianGrossRent":1992,"medianPropertyTax":5636},"hud":{"county":"San Luis Obispo County","year":"2027","perUnit":2720,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":307778,"ratePer100k":390.27154671662436},"propertyCrime":{"total":1264040,"ratePer100k":1602.839858312426},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":28.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.42595747397634,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":936525,"monthlyRent":2720,"grossRent":2720,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":187305,"loan":749220,"mortgagePI":4859.426659108385,"monthlyTax":533.0388125000001,"taxRatePct":0.683,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,636 tax ÷ $824,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":507.284375,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":136,"egi":2584,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":272,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":136,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":136,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1584.3231875000001,"noi":999.6768124999999,"totalExpenses":6443.749846608385,"cashFlow":-3859.7498466083853,"annualCf":-46316.99815930062,"cocReturn":-24.728116259203237,"capRate":1.2809184752142226},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-4063.7498466083853,"delta":-204,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3941.349846608385,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3986.570940358385,"delta":-127,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-4628.962838370338,"delta":-769,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1977-10-01) (home values −13.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-4124.818897057722,"delta":-265,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-4628.962838370338,"baselineCashFlow":-3859.7498466083853,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.42595747397634,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":250102.76558225858,"totalCashOutlay":786629.5129358437,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1448279.3467720738,"equityBuilt":768081.4392325256,"netCostOfBuying":205853.07370331802,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":44249.69187894056},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":9.610707468751924,"price":936525,"medianIncome":97446,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.683,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,636 tax ÷ $824,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":936525,"secondary":824700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2720,"secondary":1992,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.37,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":824700,"high":936525}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.37,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1992,"high":2720}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":824700,"high":936525}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.37,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1992,"high":2720}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"San Luis Obispo County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 28.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is San Luis Obispo County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 28.7x, San Luis Obispo County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in San Luis Obispo County?","a":"The typical home value in San Luis Obispo County is about $936,525 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.4% year-over-year, and up 36.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in San Luis Obispo County?","a":"The typical rent in San Luis Obispo County is about $2,720/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in San Luis Obispo County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in San Luis Obispo County — roughly $44,250 ahead of renting, with about $768,081 in equity built."},{"q":"Is San Luis Obispo County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"San Luis Obispo County's median home value is 9.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in San Luis Obispo County?","a":"San Luis Obispo County's effective property tax rate is about 0.68% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,636 tax ÷ $824,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $936,525 median home is roughly $533/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in San Luis Obispo County, CA was $936,525 as of April 2026, up 3.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in San Luis Obispo County, CA was $2,720/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","San Luis Obispo County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 28.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=san-luis-obispo-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=san-luis-obispo-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:23:18.984Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":936525,"countyFmr":2720,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}