{"area":{"county":"San Juan County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"san-juan-co","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":381319},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":399661},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":409962},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":435044},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":444087},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":432500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":429385},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":428205},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":433969},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":441785},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":442343},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":443615},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":446730},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":448985},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":452015},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":452474},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":444533},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":445910},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":445031},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":442100},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":442198}],"latest":442198,"yoy":-0.525270339884778,"fiveYr":15.965372824328186,"sinceStart":574.3495897764358,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1344}],"latest":1344,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":77824,"population":724,"povertyRate":21.2707182320442,"medianHomeValue":432500,"medianGrossRent":992,"medianPropertyTax":1364},"hud":{"county":"San Juan County","year":"2027","perUnit":1344,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":27.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.0071632545033644,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":442198,"monthlyRent":1344,"grossRent":1344,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":88439.6,"loan":353758.4,"mortgagePI":2294.4702488501744,"monthlyTax":116.076975,"taxRatePct":0.315,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,364 tax ÷ $432,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":272.6887666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67.2,"egi":1276.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":134.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":657.5657416666668,"noi":619.2342583333332,"totalExpenses":2952.035990516841,"cashFlow":-1675.2359905168412,"annualCf":-20102.831886202093,"cocReturn":-22.730577576336948,"capRate":1.6804262117874793},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1776.0359905168411,"delta":-101,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1715.5559905168411,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1743.408182183508,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2038.4344598915534,"delta":-363,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1726.6389970819175,"delta":-51,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2038.4344598915534,"baselineCashFlow":-1675.2359905168412,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.0071632545033644,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":123580.1900524101,"totalCashOutlay":358784.5821081329,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":544112.5764541037,"equityBuilt":222944.26346921438,"netCostOfBuying":224279.91863891852,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":100699.72858650843},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.682026110197368,"price":442198,"medianIncome":77824,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.315,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,364 tax ÷ $432,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":442198,"secondary":432500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1344,"secondary":992,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":432500,"high":442198}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":992,"high":1344}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":432500,"high":442198}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":992,"high":1344}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"San Juan County, CO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 27.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is San Juan County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 27.4x, San Juan County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in San Juan County?","a":"The typical home value in San Juan County is about $442,198 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.5% year-over-year, and up 16.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in San Juan County?","a":"The typical rent in San Juan County is about $1,344/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in San Juan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in San Juan County by about $100,700 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is San Juan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"San Juan County's median home value is 5.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in San Juan County?","a":"San Juan County's effective property tax rate is about 0.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,364 tax ÷ $432,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $442,198 median home is roughly $116/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in San Juan County, CO was $442,198 as of April 2026, down 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in San Juan County, CO was $1,344/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","San Juan County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 27.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=san-juan-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=san-juan-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:54:01.136Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":442198,"countyFmr":1344,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}