{"area":{"county":"Saline County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"saline-mo","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":130709},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":135315},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":140128},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":145471},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":149851},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":150500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":151859},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":153575},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":157621},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":160709},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":162681},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":165756},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":167944},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":169996},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":171302},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":172996},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":174050},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":175078},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":179164},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":179861},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":180593}],"latest":180593,"yoy":3.7592645791439243,"fiveYr":38.16416620125623,"sinceStart":309.3408586064645,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":962}],"latest":962,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57931,"population":23231,"povertyRate":16.414467613950915,"medianHomeValue":150500,"medianGrossRent":739,"medianPropertyTax":1177},"hud":{"county":"Saline County","year":"2027","perUnit":962,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.6,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.6× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.679980697491317,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":180593,"monthlyRent":962,"grossRent":962,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":36118.6,"loan":144474.4,"mortgagePI":937.0582084283501,"monthlyTax":117.68643833333334,"taxRatePct":0.782,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,177 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":90.2965,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48.1,"egi":913.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":96.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":400.38293833333336,"noi":513.5170616666667,"totalExpenses":1337.4411467616835,"cashFlow":-423.5411467616834,"annualCf":-5082.493761140201,"cocReturn":-14.071679857857728,"capRate":3.4122057554833245},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-495.6911467616834,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-452.4011467616835,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-446.1152717616835,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-571.8708569362825,"delta":-148,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-475.08883803438846,"delta":-52,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-571.8708569362825,"baselineCashFlow":-423.5411467616834,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.679980697491317,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":88455.46341548998,"totalCashOutlay":154141.84931341425,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":283975.8522487127,"equityBuilt":152811.19490770224,"netCostOfBuying":37449.25440571201,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":51006.20900977797},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1173810222506084,"price":180593,"medianIncome":57931,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.782,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,177 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":180593,"secondary":150500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":962,"secondary":739,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":150500,"high":180593}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":739,"high":962}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":150500,"high":180593}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":739,"high":962}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Saline County, MO is a moderate market — a 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Saline County, MO a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Saline County's 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Saline County?","a":"The typical home value in Saline County is about $180,593 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Saline County?","a":"The typical rent in Saline County is about $962/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Saline County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Saline County — roughly $51,006 ahead of renting, with about $152,811 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Saline County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Saline County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Saline County?","a":"Saline County's effective property tax rate is about 0.78% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,177 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $180,593 median home is roughly $118/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Saline County, MO was $180,593 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Saline County, MO was $962/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Saline County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=saline-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=saline-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:24:51.756Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":180593,"countyFmr":962,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}