{"area":{"county":"Rockingham County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"rockingham-va","metro":"Harrisonburg, VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":256654},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":274082},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":277537},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":290828},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":303912},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":313000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":310335},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":318372},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":326150},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":314733},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":334512},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":326030},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":345159},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":354496},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":344412},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":363486},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":360052},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":364179},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":365923},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":372660},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":376083}],"latest":376083,"yoy":4.452412429315766,"fiveYr":46.53307565827924,"sinceStart":370.6037665019083,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1264}],"latest":1264,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":80693,"population":85600,"povertyRate":9.784058545729838,"medianHomeValue":313000,"medianGrossRent":1160,"medianPropertyTax":1645},"hud":{"county":"Rockingham County","year":"2027","perUnit":1264,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.942302267823154,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":376083,"monthlyRent":1264,"grossRent":1264,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":75216.6,"loan":300866.4,"mortgagePI":1951.4137436133142,"monthlyTax":164.849715,"taxRatePct":0.526,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,645 tax ÷ $313,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":175.5054,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":63.2,"egi":1200.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":126.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":63.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":63.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":593.1551150000001,"noi":607.6448849999998,"totalExpenses":2544.568858613314,"cashFlow":-1343.7688586133145,"annualCf":-16125.226303359774,"cocReturn":-21.43838767420991,"capRate":1.9388641922128889},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1438.5688586133142,"delta":-95,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1381.688858613314,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1387.6452086133145,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1652.6639010102717,"delta":-309,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1987-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1405.9268389885908,"delta":-62,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1652.6639010102717,"baselineCashFlow":-1343.7688586133145,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.942302267823154,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":116224.22635881428,"totalCashOutlay":317855.4842277626,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":642133.66602123,"equityBuilt":368984.6634199154,"netCostOfBuying":24087.42080784723,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":92136.80555096705},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.6606644938222646,"price":376083,"medianIncome":80693,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.526,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,645 tax ÷ $313,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":376083,"secondary":313000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1264,"secondary":1160,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":313000,"high":376083}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1160,"high":1264}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":313000,"high":376083}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1160,"high":1264}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Rockingham County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Rockingham County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.8x, Rockingham County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Rockingham County?","a":"The typical home value in Rockingham County is about $376,083 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.5% year-over-year, and up 46.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Rockingham County?","a":"The typical rent in Rockingham County is about $1,264/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Rockingham County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Rockingham County — roughly $92,137 ahead of renting, with about $368,985 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Rockingham County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Rockingham County's median home value is 4.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Rockingham County?","a":"Rockingham County's effective property tax rate is about 0.53% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,645 tax ÷ $313,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $376,083 median home is roughly $165/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Rockingham County, VA was $376,083 as of April 2026, up 4.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Rockingham County, VA was $1,264/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Rockingham County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=rockingham-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=rockingham-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T05:08:18.078Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Harrisonburg, VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Harrisonburg, VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":376083,"countyFmr":1264,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Harrisonburg, VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}