{"area":{"county":"Rockingham County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"rockingham-nc","metro":"Rockingham County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":137457},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141146},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":149541},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":156470},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":162410},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":168600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":167463},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":172022},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":172391},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":180872},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":176319},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":182691},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":185499},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":182878},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":190830},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":194764},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":187994},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":192138},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":194155},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":193104},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":197907}],"latest":197907,"yoy":5.273040628956243,"fiveYr":43.97738929265152,"sinceStart":248.1826178747361,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1012}],"latest":1012,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57053,"population":92131,"povertyRate":16.280101605049193,"medianHomeValue":168600,"medianGrossRent":810,"medianPropertyTax":1258},"hud":{"county":"Rockingham County","year":"2027","perUnit":1012,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":78762,"ratePer100k":351.67987620611166},"propertyCrime":{"total":420235,"ratePer100k":1876.3895378161467},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":16.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.563071046449155,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":197907,"monthlyRent":1012,"grossRent":1012,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":39581.4,"loan":158325.6,"mortgagePI":1026.8968279802068,"monthlyTax":123.03218499999998,"taxRatePct":0.746,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,258 tax ÷ $168,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":108.84885000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.6,"egi":961.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":434.28103500000003,"noi":527.1189649999999,"totalExpenses":1461.1778629802068,"cashFlow":-499.7778629802069,"annualCf":-5997.334355762483,"cocReturn":-15.151900528436293,"capRate":3.1961616213676116},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-575.6778629802068,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-530.1378629802068,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-526.9900754802069,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-662.3283934632509,"delta":-163,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-570.4180119977461,"delta":-71,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-662.3283934632509,"baselineCashFlow":-499.7778629802069,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.563071046449155,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93052.94072398738,"totalCashOutlay":168356.0452840398,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":329688.2800016079,"equityBuilt":185948.4681573653,"netCostOfBuying":21988.977126674494,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":71063.96359731289},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.468827230820465,"price":197907,"medianIncome":57053,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.746,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,258 tax ÷ $168,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":197907,"secondary":168600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1012,"secondary":810,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":168600,"high":197907}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":810,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":168600,"high":197907}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":810,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Rockingham County, NC is a moderate market — a 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Rockingham County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Rockingham County's 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Rockingham County?","a":"The typical home value in Rockingham County is about $197,907 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.3% year-over-year, and up 44.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Rockingham County?","a":"The typical rent in Rockingham County is about $1,012/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Rockingham County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Rockingham County — roughly $71,064 ahead of renting, with about $185,948 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Rockingham County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Rockingham County's median home value is 3.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Rockingham County?","a":"Rockingham County's effective property tax rate is about 0.75% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,258 tax ÷ $168,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $197,907 median home is roughly $123/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Rockingham County, NC was $197,907 as of April 2026, up 5.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Rockingham County, NC was $1,012/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Rockingham County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=rockingham-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=rockingham-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:08:48.280Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Rockingham County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Rockingham County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":197907,"countyFmr":1012,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Rockingham County, NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}