{"area":{"county":"Robertson County","state":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","slug":"robertson-ky","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":144995},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":151391},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155003},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":161157},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":165258},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":165100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":169704},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":173055},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":174432},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177107},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":179638},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":182229},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":185694},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":188280},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":191428},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":191487},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":193970},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":195870},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":196862},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":200617},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":202216}],"latest":202216,"yoy":4.25117286178275,"fiveYr":39.46411945239491,"sinceStart":309.758865248227,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":51830,"population":2283,"povertyRate":21.123595505617978,"medianHomeValue":165100,"medianGrossRent":548,"medianPropertyTax":893},"hud":{"county":"Robertson County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kentucky","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":20438,"ratePer100k":221.8211781376659},"propertyCrime":{"total":125056,"ratePer100k":1357.2790514328185},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":18.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.880002067991153,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":202216,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KY","down":40443.200000000004,"loan":161772.8,"mortgagePI":1049.2553015651063,"monthlyTax":91.16571333333336,"taxRatePct":0.541,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($893 tax ÷ $165,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":97.73773333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":370.70344666666665,"noi":492.8465533333333,"totalExpenses":1419.958748231773,"cashFlow":-556.408748231773,"annualCf":-6676.9049787812755,"cocReturn":-16.509338971152815,"capRate":2.9246739328243065},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-624.5837482317729,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-583.6787482317729,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-580.8431815651063,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-722.4984675047608,"delta":-166,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.7% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-10-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-574.8287963354412,"delta":-18,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-722.4984675047608,"baselineCashFlow":-556.408748231773,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.880002067991153,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":170600.85644251772,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":322174.14910433185,"equityBuilt":175304.71148011732,"netCostOfBuying":35739.34496240041,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":47842.79250608233},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9015242137758057,"price":202216,"medianIncome":51830,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.541,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($893 tax ÷ $165,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":202216,"secondary":165100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":548,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.66,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165100,"high":202216}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.66,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":548,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165100,"high":202216}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.66,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":548,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Robertson County, KY is a moderate market — a 18.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Robertson County, KY a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Robertson County's 18.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Robertson County?","a":"The typical home value in Robertson County is about $202,216 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 4.3% year-over-year, and up 39.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Robertson County?","a":"The typical rent in Robertson County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Robertson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Robertson County — roughly $47,843 ahead of renting, with about $175,305 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Robertson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Robertson County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Robertson County?","a":"Robertson County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($893 tax ÷ $165,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $202,216 median home is roughly $91/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Robertson County, KY was $202,216 as of April 2026, up 4.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Robertson County, KY was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Robertson County, KY has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=robertson-ky","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=robertson-ky"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:07:23.159Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":202216,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}