{"area":{"county":"Richmond County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"richmond-nc","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":103323},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":109657},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":114553},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":121140},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":127537},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":127800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":129299},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":130705},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":133244},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":136916},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":137062},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":139150},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":140888},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":142068},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":144447},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":145215},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":145318},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":145142},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":145919},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":146235},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":145919}],"latest":145919,"yoy":0.41357574422989585,"fiveYr":41.22605808967993,"sinceStart":339.0522040018053,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1012}],"latest":1012,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":44883,"population":42344,"povertyRate":25.223111713062618,"medianHomeValue":127800,"medianGrossRent":724,"medianPropertyTax":1138},"hud":{"county":"Richmond County","year":"2027","perUnit":1012,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":78762,"ratePer100k":351.67987620611166},"propertyCrime":{"total":420235,"ratePer100k":1876.3895378161467},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":12,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.1487410034248855,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":145919,"monthlyRent":1012,"grossRent":1012,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":29183.800000000003,"loan":116735.2,"mortgagePI":757.1422852250996,"monthlyTax":108.22325833333333,"taxRatePct":0.89,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.89% ($1,138 tax ÷ $127,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":80.25545,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.6,"egi":961.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":390.87870833333335,"noi":570.5212916666667,"totalExpenses":1148.020993558433,"cashFlow":-186.62099355843293,"annualCf":-2239.451922701195,"cocReturn":-7.6736131782057,"capRate":4.69181909141373},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-262.5209935584329,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-216.98099355843306,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-206.68485605843307,"delta":-20,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-306.47128110538836,"delta":-120,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-233.8505840601664,"delta":-47,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-306.47128110538836,"baselineCashFlow":-186.62099355843293,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.1487410034248855,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93052.94072398738,"totalCashOutlay":123736.11527738869,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":236603.60197037898,"equityBuilt":130622.66342601187,"netCostOfBuying":22297.251851376815,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":70755.68887261057},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.2510972974177306,"price":145919,"medianIncome":44883,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.89,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.89% ($1,138 tax ÷ $127,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":145919,"secondary":127800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1012,"secondary":724,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.4,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":127800,"high":145919}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":724,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":127800,"high":145919}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":724,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Richmond County, NC leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Richmond County, NC a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Richmond County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Richmond County?","a":"The typical home value in Richmond County is about $145,919 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Richmond County?","a":"The typical rent in Richmond County is about $1,012/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Richmond County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Richmond County — roughly $70,756 ahead of renting, with about $130,623 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Richmond County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Richmond County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Richmond County?","a":"Richmond County's effective property tax rate is about 0.89% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.89% ($1,138 tax ÷ $127,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $145,919 median home is roughly $108/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Richmond County, NC was $145,919 as of April 2026, up 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Richmond County, NC was $1,012/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Richmond County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=richmond-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=richmond-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:35:19.920Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":145919,"countyFmr":1012,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}