{"area":{"county":"Richland County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"richland-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":214504},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":232250},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":241475},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":254511},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":264723},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":263000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":266487},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":269075},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":274045},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":274187},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":277198},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":281762},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":285952},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":291596},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":298553},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":296936},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":293388},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":296253},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":294607},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":296289},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":301548}],"latest":301548,"yoy":2.781299848664567,"fiveYr":40.57919665833737,"sinceStart":642.0528090164136,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1315}],"latest":1315,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":73084,"population":11235,"povertyRate":6.5976252120346395,"medianHomeValue":263000,"medianGrossRent":917,"medianPropertyTax":1934},"hud":{"county":"Richland County","year":"2027","perUnit":1315,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.050391977562476,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":301548,"monthlyRent":1315,"grossRent":1315,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":60309.600000000006,"loan":241238.4,"mortgagePI":1564.6676705916182,"monthlyTax":184.69814999999997,"taxRatePct":0.735,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,934 tax ÷ $263,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":155.79979999999998,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.75,"egi":1249.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":131.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":603.49795,"noi":645.75205,"totalExpenses":2168.165620591618,"cashFlow":-918.9156205916181,"annualCf":-11026.987447099418,"cocReturn":-18.283967141382824,"capRate":2.569748298778304},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1017.540620591618,"delta":-99,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-958.3656205916182,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-957.865570591618,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1166.5914853467857,"delta":-248,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-993.5865189720802,"delta":-75,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1166.5914853467857,"baselineCashFlow":-918.9156205916181,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.050391977562476,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":120913.65321348164,"totalCashOutlay":253945.94493553913,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":485818.7646830429,"equityBuilt":266804.516667522,"netCostOfBuying":47451.02826801711,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":73462.62494546453},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.126046740736687,"price":301548,"medianIncome":73084,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.735,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,934 tax ÷ $263,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":301548,"secondary":263000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1315,"secondary":917,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.43,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":263000,"high":301548}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":917,"high":1315}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":263000,"high":301548}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":917,"high":1315}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Richland County, MT is a moderate market — a 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Richland County, MT a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Richland County's 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Richland County?","a":"The typical home value in Richland County is about $301,548 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Richland County?","a":"The typical rent in Richland County is about $1,315/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Richland County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Richland County — roughly $73,463 ahead of renting, with about $266,805 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Richland County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Richland County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Richland County?","a":"Richland County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,934 tax ÷ $263,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $301,548 median home is roughly $185/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Richland County, MT was $301,548 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Richland County, MT was $1,315/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Richland County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=richland-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=richland-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T01:09:49.612Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":301548,"countyFmr":1315,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}