{"area":{"county":"Rice County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"rice-mn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":291187},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":298755},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":306883},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":315060},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":323020},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":320200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":320726},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":323463},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":330630},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":333209},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":334218},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":338974},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":341569},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":345992},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":349488},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":351958},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":354253},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":357499},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":360719},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":362280},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":363156}],"latest":363156,"yoy":2.5131756117802815,"fiveYr":24.71573250179438,"sinceStart":335.2196735456964,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1226}],"latest":1226,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":83181,"population":67917,"povertyRate":10.204183101859526,"medianHomeValue":320200,"medianGrossRent":1083,"medianPropertyTax":3115},"hud":{"county":"Rice County","year":"2027","perUnit":1226,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.516985422930619,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":363156,"monthlyRent":1226,"grossRent":1226,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":72631.2,"loan":290524.8,"mortgagePI":1884.3383228586151,"monthlyTax":294.45899,"taxRatePct":0.973,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($3,115 tax ÷ $320,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":163.4202,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":61.300000000000004,"egi":1164.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":122.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":61.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":61.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":703.0791899999999,"noi":461.6208100000001,"totalExpenses":2587.417512858615,"cashFlow":-1422.717512858615,"annualCf":-17072.61015430338,"cocReturn":-23.50589024317839,"capRate":1.525363678419192},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1514.667512858615,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1459.497512858615,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1463.5725628586151,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1720.9949888857407,"delta":-298,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1510.8381641848657,"delta":-88,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1720.9949888857407,"baselineCashFlow":-1422.717512858615,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.516985422930619,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":112730.14360435626,"totalCashOutlay":306380.6242262235,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":494767.7096546875,"equityBuilt":231007.58439328778,"netCostOfBuying":148004.23983293574,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":35274.09622857948},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.365852778879792,"price":363156,"medianIncome":83181,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.973,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($3,115 tax ÷ $320,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":363156,"secondary":320200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1226,"secondary":1083,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":320200,"high":363156}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1083,"high":1226}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":320200,"high":363156}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1083,"high":1226}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Rice County, MN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Rice County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.7x, Rice County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Rice County?","a":"The typical home value in Rice County is about $363,156 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.5% year-over-year, and up 24.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Rice County?","a":"The typical rent in Rice County is about $1,226/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Rice County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Rice County by about $35,274 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Rice County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Rice County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Rice County?","a":"Rice County's effective property tax rate is about 0.97% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($3,115 tax ÷ $320,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $363,156 median home is roughly $294/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Rice County, MN was $363,156 as of April 2026, up 2.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Rice County, MN was $1,226/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Rice County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=rice-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=rice-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T19:09:45.746Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":363156,"countyFmr":1226,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}