{"area":{"county":"Red Lake County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"red-lake-mn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":147321},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":151150},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155262},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":159399},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":163427},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":162000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":162266},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":163651},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":167277},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":168581},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":169092},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":171499},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":172812},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":175049},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":176818},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":178067},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":179228},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":180871},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":182500},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":183290},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":183733}],"latest":183733,"yoy":2.5135581493962995,"fiveYr":24.716096143794843,"sinceStart":335.2212431305666,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":77188,"population":3915,"povertyRate":7.1995900589290285,"medianHomeValue":162000,"medianGrossRent":583,"medianPropertyTax":1622},"hud":{"county":"Red Lake County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.517046380636791,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":183733,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":36746.6,"loan":146986.4,"mortgagePI":953.3509926141437,"monthlyTax":153.26394416666662,"taxRatePct":1.001,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.00% ($1,622 tax ÷ $162,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":82.67985,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":438.7437941666666,"noi":524.5562058333334,"totalExpenses":1392.0947867808104,"cashFlow":-428.79478678081034,"annualCf":-5145.537441369725,"cocReturn":-14.002757918745475,"capRate":3.4259901433057753},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-504.8447867808103,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-459.2147867808103,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-449.46474928081034,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-579.7035298633749,"delta":-151,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-501.6789864024661,"delta":-73,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-579.7035298633749,"baselineCashFlow":-428.79478678081034,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.517046380636791,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":155008.47271699805,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":250320.87238141004,"equityBuilt":116875.63371083135,"netCostOfBuying":74879.4390061667,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":18357.400810160572},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.3803311395553712,"price":183733,"medianIncome":77188,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.001,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.00% ($1,622 tax ÷ $162,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":183733,"secondary":162000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":583,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.74,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":162000,"high":183733}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.74,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":583,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":162000,"high":183733}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.74,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":583,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Red Lake County, MN is a moderate market — a 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Red Lake County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Red Lake County's 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Red Lake County?","a":"The typical home value in Red Lake County is about $183,733 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.5% year-over-year, and up 24.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Red Lake County?","a":"The typical rent in Red Lake County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Red Lake County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Red Lake County — roughly $18,357 ahead of renting, with about $116,876 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Red Lake County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Red Lake County's median home value is 2.4x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Red Lake County?","a":"Red Lake County's effective property tax rate is about 1.00% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.00% ($1,622 tax ÷ $162,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $183,733 median home is roughly $153/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Red Lake County, MN was $183,733 as of April 2026, up 2.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Red Lake County, MN was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Red Lake County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=red-lake-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=red-lake-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:30:07.562Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":183733,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}