{"area":{"county":"Reagan County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"reagan-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":143770},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":150932},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":157515},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":163917},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":171472},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":171500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":171767},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":171877},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":173281},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":175828},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":175954},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":177079},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":178128},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":178464},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":179938},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":180873},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":179055},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":178622},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":178942},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":178646},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":179869}],"latest":179869,"yoy":0.4546089190472201,"fiveYr":25.108854420254573,"sinceStart":344.25261805967205,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57813,"population":3232,"povertyRate":11.786600496277917,"medianHomeValue":171500,"medianGrossRent":746,"medianPropertyTax":1579},"hud":{"county":"Reagan County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.582802026563915,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":179869,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":35973.8,"loan":143895.2,"mortgagePI":933.3015282530272,"monthlyTax":138.04945750000002,"taxRatePct":0.921,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($1,579 tax ÷ $171,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":127.40720833333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":468.2566658333334,"noi":495.04333416666657,"totalExpenses":1401.5581940863606,"cashFlow":-438.2581940863606,"annualCf":-5259.098329036327,"cocReturn":-14.619246031935262,"capRate":3.3026925206678186},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-514.3081940863606,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-468.6781940863606,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-470.1099961696939,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-585.9932482656196,"delta":-148,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-458.15234384309474,"delta":-20,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-585.9932482656196,"baselineCashFlow":-438.2581940863606,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.582802026563915,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":164259.2103481125,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":246137.75454370034,"equityBuilt":115498.93824810635,"netCostOfBuying":84734.07210000616,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":8502.76771632112},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1112206597132133,"price":179869,"medianIncome":57813,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.921,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($1,579 tax ÷ $171,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":179869,"secondary":171500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":746,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.36,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171500,"high":179869}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":746,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171500,"high":179869}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":746,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Reagan County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Reagan County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Reagan County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Reagan County?","a":"The typical home value in Reagan County is about $179,869 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Reagan County?","a":"The typical rent in Reagan County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Reagan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Reagan County — roughly $8,503 ahead of renting, with about $115,499 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Reagan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Reagan County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Reagan County?","a":"Reagan County's effective property tax rate is about 0.92% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($1,579 tax ÷ $171,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $179,869 median home is roughly $138/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Reagan County, TX was $179,869 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Reagan County, TX was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Reagan County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=reagan-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=reagan-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T01:07:45.603Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":179869,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}