{"area":{"county":"Rankin County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"rankin-ms","metro":"Jackson, MS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":203132},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":213436},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":221020},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":224416},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":230365},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":237400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":240522},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":240153},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":235122},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":242051},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":249065},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":245838},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":248338},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":253263},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":257756},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":255668},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":258104},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":263125},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":266057},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":268314},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":262629}],"latest":262629,"yoy":1.7531692651024393,"fiveYr":29.289821396924165,"sinceStart":291.01479915433407,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1289}],"latest":1289,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79357,"population":158854,"povertyRate":9.83640612827837,"medianHomeValue":237400,"medianGrossRent":1270,"medianPropertyTax":1428},"hud":{"county":"Rankin County","year":"2027","perUnit":1289,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":9790,"ratePer100k":165.6985403634197},"propertyCrime":{"total":57848,"ratePer100k":979.0938879410729},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.27273884795858,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":262629,"monthlyRent":1289,"grossRent":1289,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":52525.8,"loan":210103.2,"mortgagePI":1362.7253560289114,"monthlyTax":131.752215,"taxRatePct":0.602,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,428 tax ÷ $237,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":161.95455,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.45,"egi":1224.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":128.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":551.506765,"noi":673.043235,"totalExpenses":1914.2321210289115,"cashFlow":-689.6821210289114,"annualCf":-8276.185452346937,"cocReturn":-15.756419611594563,"capRate":3.075257804735958},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-786.3571210289114,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-728.3521210289113,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-730.1707585289115,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-905.3919406423225,"delta":-216,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-04-01) (home values −26.0% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1981-07-01 → 1981-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-941.5063531798129,"delta":-252,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-941.5063531798129,"baselineCashFlow":-689.6821210289114,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.27273884795858,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":118522.96501306299,"totalCashOutlay":218526.7592662645,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":376317.2565354599,"equityBuilt":185569.86991021872,"netCostOfBuying":85482.6893560458,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":33040.27565701719},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.309462303262472,"price":262629,"medianIncome":79357,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.602,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,428 tax ÷ $237,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":262629,"secondary":237400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1289,"secondary":1270,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.01,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237400,"high":262629}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1270,"high":1289}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237400,"high":262629}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1270,"high":1289}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Rankin County, MS is a moderate market — a 17.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Rankin County, MS a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Rankin County's 17.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Rankin County?","a":"The typical home value in Rankin County is about $262,629 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 29.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Rankin County?","a":"The typical rent in Rankin County is about $1,289/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Rankin County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Rankin County — roughly $33,040 ahead of renting, with about $185,570 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Rankin County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Rankin County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Rankin County?","a":"Rankin County's effective property tax rate is about 0.60% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,428 tax ÷ $237,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $262,629 median home is roughly $132/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Rankin County, MS was $262,629 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Rankin County, MS was $1,289/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Rankin County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=rankin-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=rankin-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:55:14.288Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Jackson, MS HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jackson, MS HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":262629,"countyFmr":1289,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jackson, MS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}