{"area":{"county":"Prairie County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"prairie-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":135146},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":146327},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":152138},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":160352},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":166786},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":165700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":167897},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":169528},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":172659},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":172748},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":174646},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":177521},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":180160},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":183717},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":188100},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":187081},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":184846},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":186651},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":185614},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":186674},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":189987}],"latest":189987,"yoy":2.7812341083929324,"fiveYr":40.57907744217365,"sinceStart":642.0497597937742,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1552}],"latest":1552,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":51250,"population":1250,"povertyRate":20.607553366174056,"medianHomeValue":165700,"medianGrossRent":627,"medianPropertyTax":1391},"hud":{"county":"Prairie County","year":"2027","perUnit":1552,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.05037381856175,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":189987,"monthlyRent":1552,"grossRent":1552,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":37997.4,"loan":151989.6,"mortgagePI":985.8016525816447,"monthlyTax":132.83257749999999,"taxRatePct":0.839,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($1,391 tax ÷ $165,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":98.15995,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.60000000000001,"egi":1474.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":155.20000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.60000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.60000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":541.3925275,"noi":933.0074725000001,"totalExpenses":1527.1941800816448,"cashFlow":-52.79418008164464,"annualCf":-633.5301609797357,"cocReturn":-1.667298712490159,"capRate":5.893081984556839},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-169.19418008164473,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-99.35418008164481,"delta":-47,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-77.33416758164469,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-208.83963393058423,"delta":-156,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-140.92274583452502,"delta":-88,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-208.83963393058423,"baselineCashFlow":-52.79418008164464,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"divergent","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.05037381856175,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142705.6956557593,"totalCashOutlay":159995.82713923074,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":306084.404634032,"equityBuilt":168096.88709876477,"netCostOfBuying":29896.340040465962,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":112809.35561529335},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.7070634146341463,"price":189987,"medianIncome":51250,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.839,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($1,391 tax ÷ $165,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"divergent","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":189987,"secondary":165700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1552,"secondary":627,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":2.48,"grade":"divergent","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165700,"high":189987}},"rent":{"label":"divergent","ratio":2.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":627,"high":1552}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165700,"high":189987}},"rent":{"label":"divergent","ratio":2.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":627,"high":1552}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Prairie County, MT leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Prairie County, MT a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Prairie County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Prairie County?","a":"The typical home value in Prairie County is about $189,987 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Prairie County?","a":"The typical rent in Prairie County is about $1,552/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Prairie County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Prairie County — roughly $112,809 ahead of renting, with about $168,097 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Prairie County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Prairie County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Prairie County?","a":"Prairie County's effective property tax rate is about 0.84% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($1,391 tax ÷ $165,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $189,987 median home is roughly $133/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Prairie County, MT was $189,987 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Prairie County, MT was $1,552/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Prairie County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=prairie-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=prairie-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:03:30.733Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":189987,"countyFmr":1552,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}