{"area":{"county":"Pondera County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"pondera-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":168096},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":182003},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":189232},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":199448},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":207450},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":206100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":208832},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":210861},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":214755},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":214867},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":217227},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":220803},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":224086},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":228509},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":233961},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":232694},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":229914},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":232159},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":230869},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":232187},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":236308}],"latest":236308,"yoy":2.7810398670807346,"fiveYr":40.57919284218542,"sinceStart":642.0568378081332,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1257}],"latest":1257,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":52338,"population":6035,"povertyRate":21.940928270042196,"medianHomeValue":206100,"medianGrossRent":784,"medianPropertyTax":1651},"hud":{"county":"Pondera County","year":"2027","perUnit":1257,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.050391396286582,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":236308,"monthlyRent":1257,"grossRent":1257,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":47261.600000000006,"loan":189046.4,"mortgagePI":1226.1513520307353,"monthlyTax":157.73559,"taxRatePct":0.801,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,651 tax ÷ $206,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":122.09246666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":62.85,"egi":1194.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":125.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":62.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":62.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":531.2280566666667,"noi":662.9219433333334,"totalExpenses":1757.3794086974021,"cashFlow":-563.2294086974019,"annualCf":-6758.752904368823,"cocReturn":-14.300728084467776,"capRate":3.3663961101613156},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-657.5044086974021,"delta":-94,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-600.939408697402,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-593.7525253640686,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-757.3205260271938,"delta":-194,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-634.6081911718484,"delta":-71,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-757.3205260271938,"baselineCashFlow":-563.2294086974019,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.050391396286582,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":115580.57953562464,"totalCashOutlay":199004.66292169175,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":380711.71515354735,"equityBuilt":209081.265208425,"netCostOfBuying":37184.997713266755,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":78395.58182235788},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.515036875692614,"price":236308,"medianIncome":52338,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.801,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,651 tax ÷ $206,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":236308,"secondary":206100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1257,"secondary":784,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.6,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":206100,"high":236308}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.6,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":784,"high":1257}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":206100,"high":236308}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.6,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":784,"high":1257}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pondera County, MT is a moderate market — a 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pondera County, MT a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Pondera County's 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pondera County?","a":"The typical home value in Pondera County is about $236,308 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pondera County?","a":"The typical rent in Pondera County is about $1,257/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pondera County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Pondera County — roughly $78,396 ahead of renting, with about $209,081 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Pondera County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pondera County's median home value is 4.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pondera County?","a":"Pondera County's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,651 tax ÷ $206,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $236,308 median home is roughly $158/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pondera County, MT was $236,308 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pondera County, MT was $1,257/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pondera County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pondera-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pondera-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T01:20:51.949Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":236308,"countyFmr":1257,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}