{"area":{"county":"Polk County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"polk-mn","metro":"Grand Forks, ND-MN MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":194743},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":204553},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":207238},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":212705},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":219230},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":222800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":226955},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":214730},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":225282},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":230105},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":225605},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":231522},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":239915},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":238797},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":245082},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":246395},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":245382},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":254045},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":254232},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":259265},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":262985}],"latest":262985,"yoy":7.173712823271471,"fiveYr":35.042081101759756,"sinceStart":382.7893229549126,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":73107,"population":30705,"povertyRate":11.875761266747869,"medianHomeValue":222800,"medianGrossRent":855,"medianPropertyTax":2245},"hud":{"county":"Polk County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.193368484740036,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":262985,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":52597,"loan":210388,"mortgagePI":1364.5725634079374,"monthlyTax":220.90740000000002,"taxRatePct":1.008,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($2,245 tax ÷ $222,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":118.34325000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":542.05065,"noi":421.24934999999994,"totalExpenses":1906.6232134079373,"cashFlow":-943.3232134079375,"annualCf":-11319.87856089525,"cocReturn":-21.521909160019106,"capRate":1.9221598950510481},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1019.3732134079374,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-973.7432134079374,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-972.9090259079376,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1159.3254329306596,"delta":-216,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1987-07-01) (home values −5.9% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1988-04-01 → 1988-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-988.5522865095751,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1159.3254329306596,"baselineCashFlow":-943.3232134079375,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.193368484740036,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":224732.33506768977,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":400509.4400512962,"equityBuilt":209503.4907020656,"netCostOfBuying":67825.84436562416,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":25410.99545070312},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.597261548141765,"price":262985,"medianIncome":73107,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.008,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($2,245 tax ÷ $222,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":262985,"secondary":222800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":855,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222800,"high":262985}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222800,"high":262985}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Polk County, MN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Polk County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.6x, Polk County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Polk County?","a":"The typical home value in Polk County is about $262,985 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 7.2% year-over-year, and up 35.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Polk County?","a":"The typical rent in Polk County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Polk County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Polk County — roughly $25,411 ahead of renting, with about $209,503 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Polk County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Polk County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Polk County?","a":"Polk County's effective property tax rate is about 1.01% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($2,245 tax ÷ $222,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $262,985 median home is roughly $221/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Polk County, MN was $262,985 as of April 2026, up 7.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Polk County, MN was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Polk County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=polk-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=polk-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:35:36.433Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Grand Forks, ND-MN MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Grand Forks, ND-MN MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":262985,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Grand Forks, ND-MN MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}