{"area":{"county":"Polk County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"polk-ar","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":115771},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":121044},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":127831},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":131643},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":136063},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":138400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":139801},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":142496},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":143893},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":145528},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":147671},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":149887},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":151616},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":153742},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":154104},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":154816},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":157842},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":156967},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":160261},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":159546},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":159623}],"latest":159623,"yoy":1.1283435334068246,"fiveYr":37.87822511682546,"sinceStart":270.191794800436,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49191,"population":19361,"povertyRate":15.890640548892264,"medianHomeValue":138400,"medianGrossRent":711,"medianPropertyTax":565},"hud":{"county":"Polk County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.6357816075909515,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":159623,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":31924.600000000002,"loan":127698.4,"mortgagePI":828.2493917480663,"monthlyTax":54.27181999999999,"taxRatePct":0.408,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.41% ($565 tax ÷ $138,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":93.11341666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":329.18523666666664,"noi":534.3647633333333,"totalExpenses":1157.434628414733,"cashFlow":-293.884628414733,"annualCf":-3526.615540976796,"cocReturn":-11.046702357983486,"capRate":4.017201255458173},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-362.05962841473286,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-321.15462841473294,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-317.16298258139966,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-424.99066977403265,"delta":-131,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-10-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-338.89142423799836,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-424.99066977403265,"baselineCashFlow":-293.884628414733,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.6357816075909515,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":133327.62102432948,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":250274.24769336765,"equityBuilt":134340.09687498555,"netCostOfBuying":30912.12414934393,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":52670.013319138816},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.244963509585087,"price":159623,"medianIncome":49191,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.408,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.41% ($565 tax ÷ $138,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":159623,"secondary":138400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":711,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":138400,"high":159623}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":711,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":138400,"high":159623}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":711,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Polk County, AR leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Polk County, AR a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Polk County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Polk County?","a":"The typical home value in Polk County is about $159,623 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 37.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Polk County?","a":"The typical rent in Polk County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Polk County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Polk County — roughly $52,670 ahead of renting, with about $134,340 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Polk County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Polk County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Polk County?","a":"Polk County's effective property tax rate is about 0.41% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.41% ($565 tax ÷ $138,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $159,623 median home is roughly $54/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Polk County, AR was $159,623 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Polk County, AR was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Polk County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=polk-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=polk-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:23:21.846Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":159623,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}