{"area":{"county":"Pike County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"pike-pa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":242273},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":250134},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":257081},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":266110},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":270826},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":272600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":275867},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":278678},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":284343},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":291457},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":295189},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":298667},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":304824},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":308355},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":313572},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":318701},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":319878},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":323048},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":326623},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":330645},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":332455}],"latest":332455,"yoy":3.9318115031355703,"fiveYr":37.22329768484313,"sinceStart":278.52962608735254,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1521}],"latest":1521,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":81323,"population":60621,"povertyRate":9.8110440897124,"medianHomeValue":272600,"medianGrossRent":1378,"medianPropertyTax":3542},"hud":{"county":"Pike County","year":"2027","perUnit":1521,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.534269787184566,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":332455,"monthlyRent":1521,"grossRent":1521,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":66491,"loan":265964,"mortgagePI":1725.0374415566891,"monthlyTax":359.88253749999996,"taxRatePct":1.299,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.30% ($3,542 tax ÷ $272,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":121.90016666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":76.05,"egi":1444.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":152.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":76.05,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":76.05,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":785.9827041666665,"noi":658.9672958333335,"totalExpenses":2511.0201457233557,"cashFlow":-1066.0701457233556,"annualCf":-12792.841748680268,"cocReturn":-19.239959917402757,"capRate":2.378549743574319},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1180.1451457233557,"delta":-114,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1111.7001457233557,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1096.5451873900224,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1339.1314149646678,"delta":-273,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1122.7552219016438,"delta":-57,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1339.1314149646678,"baselineCashFlow":-1066.0701457233556,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.534269787184566,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":139855.25972449093,"totalCashOutlay":292799.8748099766,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":517795.4181909321,"equityBuilt":276333.42267446365,"netCostOfBuying":82957.45213551295,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":56897.80758897797},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.088080862732561,"price":332455,"medianIncome":81323,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.299,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.30% ($3,542 tax ÷ $272,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":332455,"secondary":272600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1521,"secondary":1378,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.1,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":272600,"high":332455}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1378,"high":1521}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":272600,"high":332455}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1378,"high":1521}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pike County, PA is a moderate market — a 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pike County, PA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Pike County's 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pike County?","a":"The typical home value in Pike County is about $332,455 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 37.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pike County?","a":"The typical rent in Pike County is about $1,521/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pike County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Pike County — roughly $56,898 ahead of renting, with about $276,333 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Pike County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pike County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pike County?","a":"Pike County's effective property tax rate is about 1.30% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.30% ($3,542 tax ÷ $272,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $332,455 median home is roughly $360/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pike County, PA was $332,455 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pike County, PA was $1,521/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pike County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pike-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pike-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:29:32.377Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":332455,"countyFmr":1521,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}