{"area":{"county":"Pike County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"pike-mo","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":126800},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":131269},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":135938},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":141121},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":145371},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":146000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":147318},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":148983},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":152908},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":155904},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":157817},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":160800},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":162923},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":164913},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":166180},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":167823},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":168846},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":169843},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":173806},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":174483},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":175193}],"latest":175193,"yoy":3.759046705281736,"fiveYr":38.16482649842271,"sinceStart":309.33900324773947,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1025}],"latest":1025,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":54989,"population":17711,"povertyRate":15.968963143733184,"medianHomeValue":146000,"medianGrossRent":778,"medianPropertyTax":979},"hud":{"county":"Pike County","year":"2027","perUnit":1025,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.680082677621679,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":175193,"monthlyRent":1025,"grossRent":1025,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":35038.6,"loan":140154.4,"mortgagePI":909.0387706566032,"monthlyTax":97.96208583333335,"taxRatePct":0.671,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($979 tax ÷ $146,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":87.5965,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.25,"egi":973.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":390.5585858333334,"noi":583.1914141666666,"totalExpenses":1299.5973564899366,"cashFlow":-325.8473564899366,"annualCf":-3910.168277879239,"cocReturn":-11.159601918681796,"capRate":3.9946213433185114},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-402.7223564899366,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-356.5973564899366,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-347.7464814899365,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-469.74178714128243,"delta":-144,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-380.7767641383082,"delta":-55,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-469.74178714128243,"baselineCashFlow":-325.8473564899366,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.680082677621679,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94248.28482419671,"totalCashOutlay":149532.8969241252,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":275486.39424281416,"equityBuilt":148243.75574883266,"netCostOfBuying":36327.741175292555,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57920.54364890416},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1859644656203967,"price":175193,"medianIncome":54989,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.671,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($979 tax ÷ $146,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":175193,"secondary":146000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1025,"secondary":778,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":146000,"high":175193}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":778,"high":1025}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":146000,"high":175193}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":778,"high":1025}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pike County, MO leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pike County, MO a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Pike County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pike County?","a":"The typical home value in Pike County is about $175,193 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pike County?","a":"The typical rent in Pike County is about $1,025/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pike County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Pike County — roughly $57,921 ahead of renting, with about $148,244 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Pike County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pike County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pike County?","a":"Pike County's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($979 tax ÷ $146,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $175,193 median home is roughly $98/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pike County, MO was $175,193 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pike County, MO was $1,025/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pike County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pike-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pike-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T16:23:17.670Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":175193,"countyFmr":1025,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}