{"area":{"county":"Pierce County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"pierce-wa","metro":"Tacoma, WA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":472845},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":486219},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":502870},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":530834},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":537550},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":526600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":517288},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":518351},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":522346},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":537378},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":540463},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":536123},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":547552},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":550484},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":561491},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":563120},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":556165},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":571972},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":566636},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":564404},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":567508}],"latest":567508,"yoy":2.039502665575863,"fiveYr":20.01987966458353,"sinceStart":492.36975877582125,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2064}],"latest":2064,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":99564,"population":930319,"povertyRate":8.806150019535226,"medianHomeValue":526600,"medianGrossRent":1806,"medianPropertyTax":4770},"hud":{"county":"Pierce County","year":"2027","perUnit":2064,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":22.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.7176832963373707,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":567508,"monthlyRent":2064,"grossRent":2064,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":113501.6,"loan":454006.4,"mortgagePI":2944.6768686978794,"monthlyTax":428.46854,"taxRatePct":0.906,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($4,770 tax ÷ $526,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":198.62779999999998,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":103.2,"egi":1960.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":206.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":103.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":103.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1039.89634,"noi":920.90366,"totalExpenses":3984.5732086978796,"cashFlow":-2023.7732086978795,"annualCf":-24285.278504374553,"cocReturn":-21.396419525693517,"capRate":1.947257821916167},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2178.5732086978796,"delta":-155,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2085.6932086978795,"delta":-62,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2073.4301586978795,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2489.8948034538575,"delta":-466,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −18.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2310.611020282553,"delta":-287,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2489.8948034538575,"baselineCashFlow":-2023.7732086978795,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.7176832963373707,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":189783.8632947727,"totalCashOutlay":461291.42184033006,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":732726.0648809447,"equityBuilt":320545.1256513949,"netCostOfBuying":254247.89618893518,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":64464.03289416249},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.699931702221686,"price":567508,"medianIncome":99564,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.906,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($4,770 tax ÷ $526,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":567508,"secondary":526600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2064,"secondary":1806,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":526600,"high":567508}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1806,"high":2064}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":526600,"high":567508}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1806,"high":2064}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pierce County, WA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pierce County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.9x, Pierce County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pierce County?","a":"The typical home value in Pierce County is about $567,508 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 20.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pierce County?","a":"The typical rent in Pierce County is about $2,064/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pierce County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Pierce County by about $64,464 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Pierce County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pierce County's median home value is 5.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pierce County?","a":"Pierce County's effective property tax rate is about 0.91% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($4,770 tax ÷ $526,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $567,508 median home is roughly $428/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pierce County, WA was $567,508 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pierce County, WA was $2,064/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pierce County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pierce-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pierce-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:11:27.257Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Tacoma, WA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tacoma, WA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":567508,"countyFmr":2064,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tacoma, WA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[{"city":"Tacoma","state":"WA"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}