{"area":{"county":"Phillips County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"phillips-co","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":227646},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":238595},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":244745},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":259719},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":265117},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":258200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":256341},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":255636},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":259077},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":263743},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":264076},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":264835},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":266695},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":268042},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":269850},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":270124},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":265384},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":266206},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":265681},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":263931},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":263990}],"latest":263990,"yoy":-0.5252765803514907,"fiveYr":15.965138855942998,"sinceStart":574.3556338927632,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1137}],"latest":1137,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":64674,"population":4496,"povertyRate":16.837548416495785,"medianHomeValue":258200,"medianGrossRent":999,"medianPropertyTax":1456},"hud":{"county":"Phillips County","year":"2027","perUnit":1137,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.007121683923919,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":263990,"monthlyRent":1137,"grossRent":1137,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":52798,"loan":211192,"mortgagePI":1369.7872921043459,"monthlyTax":124.07529999999998,"taxRatePct":0.564,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,456 tax ÷ $258,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":162.79383333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.85,"egi":1080.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":113.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":514.2691333333333,"noi":565.8808666666667,"totalExpenses":1884.056425437679,"cashFlow":-803.9064254376791,"annualCf":-9646.87710525215,"cocReturn":-18.271292672548487,"capRate":2.5722831925451723},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-889.1814254376791,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-838.0164254376792,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-844.6048837710124,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1020.7340997605621,"delta":-217,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-847.39109294658,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1020.7340997605621,"baselineCashFlow":-803.9064254376791,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.007121683923919,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":104546.63399523089,"totalCashOutlay":214192.54733485344,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":324831.5760733141,"equityBuilt":133095.6954386643,"netCostOfBuying":133894.85189618915,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":29348.21790095826},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.081856696663265,"price":263990,"medianIncome":64674,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.564,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,456 tax ÷ $258,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":263990,"secondary":258200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1137,"secondary":999,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":258200,"high":263990}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":999,"high":1137}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":258200,"high":263990}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":999,"high":1137}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Phillips County, CO is a moderate market — a 19.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Phillips County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Phillips County's 19.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Phillips County?","a":"The typical home value in Phillips County is about $263,990 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.5% year-over-year, and up 16.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Phillips County?","a":"The typical rent in Phillips County is about $1,137/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Phillips County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Phillips County by about $29,348 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Phillips County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Phillips County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Phillips County?","a":"Phillips County's effective property tax rate is about 0.56% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,456 tax ÷ $258,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $263,990 median home is roughly $124/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Phillips County, CO was $263,990 as of April 2026, down 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Phillips County, CO was $1,137/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Phillips County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=phillips-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=phillips-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:58:37.108Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":263990,"countyFmr":1137,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}