{"area":{"county":"Pettis County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"pettis-mo","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":144431},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":149520},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":154839},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":160743},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":165583},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":166300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":167801},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":169698},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":174168},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177581},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":179760},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":183158},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":185576},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":187843},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":189286},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":191157},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":192323},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":193458},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":197973},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":198743},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":199552}],"latest":199552,"yoy":3.7587808010482364,"fiveYr":38.16424451814361,"sinceStart":309.3374358974359,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1068}],"latest":1068,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":60430,"population":43397,"povertyRate":15.597729192080322,"medianHomeValue":166300,"medianGrossRent":885,"medianPropertyTax":1289},"hud":{"county":"Pettis County","year":"2027","perUnit":1068,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.6,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.6× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.679992793226774,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":199552,"monthlyRent":1068,"grossRent":1068,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":39910.4,"loan":159641.6,"mortgagePI":1035.4323789310447,"monthlyTax":128.87733333333333,"taxRatePct":0.775,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,289 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":99.77600000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.400000000000006,"egi":1014.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106.80000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.400000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.400000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":442.25333333333333,"noi":572.3466666666667,"totalExpenses":1477.685712264378,"cashFlow":-463.085712264378,"annualCf":-5557.0285471725365,"cocReturn":-13.92376059165665,"capRate":3.441789608723541},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-543.1857122643779,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-495.1257122643781,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-488.02971226437796,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-626.9873603058942,"delta":-164,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-520.3113980223093,"delta":-57,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-626.9873603058942,"baselineCashFlow":-463.085712264378,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.679992793226774,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":98202.11530950447,"totalCashOutlay":170323.97275498993,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":313788.4316909893,"equityBuilt":168853.8566979756,"netCostOfBuying":41380.51605701432,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":56821.59925249015},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.302200893595896,"price":199552,"medianIncome":60430,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.775,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,289 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":199552,"secondary":166300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1068,"secondary":885,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":199552}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":885,"high":1068}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":199552}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":885,"high":1068}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pettis County, MO is a moderate market — a 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pettis County, MO a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Pettis County's 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pettis County?","a":"The typical home value in Pettis County is about $199,552 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pettis County?","a":"The typical rent in Pettis County is about $1,068/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pettis County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Pettis County — roughly $56,822 ahead of renting, with about $168,854 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Pettis County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pettis County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pettis County?","a":"Pettis County's effective property tax rate is about 0.78% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,289 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $199,552 median home is roughly $129/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pettis County, MO was $199,552 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pettis County, MO was $1,068/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pettis County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pettis-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pettis-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:17:42.953Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":199552,"countyFmr":1068,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}