{"area":{"county":"Pershing County","state":"NV","stateName":"Nevada","slug":"pershing-nv","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":154856},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":165510},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":172237},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":181117},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":187160},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":179500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":177222},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":173309},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":176843},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":181570},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":183316},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":188107},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":189355},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":189008},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":194432},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":195421},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":193993},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":195393},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":195564},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":196155},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":199362}],"latest":199362,"yoy":2.7676256359765556,"fiveYr":28.74024900552772,"sinceStart":331.51014047314993,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66902,"population":6487,"povertyRate":11.815501263689974,"medianHomeValue":179500,"medianGrossRent":715,"medianPropertyTax":1109},"hud":{"county":"Pershing County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nevada","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":21912,"ratePer100k":333.80172007209825},"propertyCrime":{"total":115298,"ratePer100k":1756.419802887586},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.183077430411553,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":199362,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NV","down":39872.4,"loan":159489.6,"mortgagePI":1034.4465098242608,"monthlyTax":102.67142999999999,"taxRatePct":0.618,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($1,109 tax ÷ $179,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":66.454,"insuranceRatePct":0.4,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NV avg 0.4%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":371.92543,"noi":591.37457,"totalExpenses":1406.3719398242608,"cashFlow":-443.0719398242609,"annualCf":-5316.863277891131,"cocReturn":-13.334695874567698,"capRate":3.5596025521413304},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-519.1219398242608,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-473.49193982426084,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-459.6854398242608,"delta":-17,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-606.8175317344037,"delta":-164,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −31.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-679.617292614245,"delta":-237,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-679.617292614245,"baselineCashFlow":-443.0719398242609,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.183077430411553,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":157779.15364537734,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NV avg 0.4%/yr)","homeValueAfter":283964.13665118284,"equityBuilt":139167.55861760193,"netCostOfBuying":58483.99502777541,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":34752.84478855187},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.979910914471914,"price":199362,"medianIncome":66902,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.618,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($1,109 tax ÷ $179,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":199362,"secondary":179500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":715,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.42,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":179500,"high":199362}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":715,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":179500,"high":199362}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":715,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Pershing County, NV is a moderate market — a 16.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Pershing County, NV a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Pershing County's 16.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Pershing County?","a":"The typical home value in Pershing County is about $199,362 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 28.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Pershing County?","a":"The typical rent in Pershing County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Pershing County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Pershing County — roughly $34,753 ahead of renting, with about $139,168 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Pershing County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Pershing County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Pershing County?","a":"Pershing County's effective property tax rate is about 0.62% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($1,109 tax ÷ $179,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $199,362 median home is roughly $103/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Pershing County, NV was $199,362 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Pershing County, NV was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Pershing County, NV has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=pershing-nv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=pershing-nv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T20:36:22.773Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":199362,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NV","stateName":"Nevada","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}