{"area":{"county":"Ottawa County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"ottawa-mi","metro":"Holland-Grand Haven, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":280667},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":291865},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":302787},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":315490},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":323968},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":323400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":325741},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":331318},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":342275},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":347895},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":351441},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":361244},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":364609},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":373689},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":376478},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":376065},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":383303},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":382709},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":392788},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":395706},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":395490}],"latest":395490,"yoy":3.179468984067435,"fiveYr":40.91075901335034,"sinceStart":359.5087605149417,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1546}],"latest":1546,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":90502,"population":301203,"povertyRate":8.314075846985515,"medianHomeValue":323400,"medianGrossRent":1211,"medianPropertyTax":3313},"hud":{"county":"Ottawa County","year":"2027","perUnit":1546,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.100847946488464,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":395490,"monthlyRent":1546,"grossRent":1546,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":79098,"loan":316392,"mortgagePI":2052.1124896941087,"monthlyTax":337.4848,"taxRatePct":1.024,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.02% ($3,313 tax ÷ $323,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":151.6045,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.30000000000001,"egi":1468.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":154.60000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.30000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.30000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":798.2892999999999,"noi":670.4107000000001,"totalExpenses":2850.4017896941086,"cashFlow":-1381.7017896941086,"annualCf":-16580.421476329302,"cocReturn":-20.96187195166667,"capRate":2.0341673367215356},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1497.6517896941086,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1428.0817896941087,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1419.6029146941087,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1706.5367338888016,"delta":-325,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1508.1744499205552,"delta":-126,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1706.5367338888016,"baselineCashFlow":-1381.7017896941086,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.100847946488464,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142153.9983787396,"totalCashOutlay":348976.7158571205,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":639272.2780241995,"equityBuilt":352027.9754665356,"netCostOfBuying":76046.74039058492,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":66107.25798815468},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.36995867494641,"price":395490,"medianIncome":90502,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.024,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.02% ($3,313 tax ÷ $323,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":395490,"secondary":323400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1546,"secondary":1211,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":323400,"high":395490}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1211,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":323400,"high":395490}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1211,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Ottawa County, MI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Ottawa County, MI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.3x, Ottawa County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Ottawa County?","a":"The typical home value in Ottawa County is about $395,490 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.2% year-over-year, and up 40.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Ottawa County?","a":"The typical rent in Ottawa County is about $1,546/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Ottawa County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Ottawa County — roughly $66,107 ahead of renting, with about $352,028 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Ottawa County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Ottawa County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Ottawa County?","a":"Ottawa County's effective property tax rate is about 1.02% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.02% ($3,313 tax ÷ $323,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $395,490 median home is roughly $337/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Ottawa County, MI was $395,490 as of April 2026, up 3.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Ottawa County, MI was $1,546/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Ottawa County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=ottawa-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=ottawa-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:24:02.530Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Holland-Grand Haven, MI HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Holland-Grand Haven, MI HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":395490,"countyFmr":1546,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Holland-Grand Haven, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}