{"area":{"county":"Oscoda County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"oscoda-mi","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":110784},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":114893},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":118639},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":123277},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":125645},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":125500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":126165},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":128216},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":131222},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":134784},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":137222},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":138643},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":141610},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":143880},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":144036},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":148185},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":148142},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":149606},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":152310},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":153171},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":153770}],"latest":153770,"yoy":3.7990576608929274,"fiveYr":38.8016320046216,"sinceStart":292.88178032141855,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49515,"population":8425,"povertyRate":17.208413001912046,"medianHomeValue":125500,"medianGrossRent":681,"medianPropertyTax":1177},"hud":{"county":"Oscoda County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.77825361511033,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":153770,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":30754,"loan":123016,"mortgagePI":797.8794344743561,"monthlyTax":120.19688333333333,"taxRatePct":0.938,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.94% ($1,177 tax ÷ $125,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":58.945166666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":381.94205,"noi":581.35795,"totalExpenses":1179.821484474356,"cashFlow":-216.52148447435616,"annualCf":-2598.257813692274,"cocReturn":-8.448519911856259,"capRate":4.536837744683618},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-292.57148447435605,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-246.94148447435612,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-231.25777614102287,"delta":-15,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-342.8201756392855,"delta":-126,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-313.1438685409436,"delta":-97,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-342.8201756392855,"baselineCashFlow":-216.52148447435616,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.77825361511033,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":135313.41191608977,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":243361.18390056858,"equityBuilt":131678.0657324937,"netCostOfBuying":34389.34618359606,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":58847.49363273122},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1055235787135214,"price":153770,"medianIncome":49515,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.938,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.94% ($1,177 tax ÷ $125,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":153770,"secondary":125500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":681,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.49,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":125500,"high":153770}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":681,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":125500,"high":153770}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":681,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Oscoda County, MI leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Oscoda County, MI a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Oscoda County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Oscoda County?","a":"The typical home value in Oscoda County is about $153,770 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Oscoda County?","a":"The typical rent in Oscoda County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Oscoda County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Oscoda County — roughly $58,847 ahead of renting, with about $131,678 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Oscoda County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Oscoda County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Oscoda County?","a":"Oscoda County's effective property tax rate is about 0.94% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.94% ($1,177 tax ÷ $125,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $153,770 median home is roughly $120/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Oscoda County, MI was $153,770 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Oscoda County, MI was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Oscoda County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=oscoda-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=oscoda-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T23:07:23.113Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":153770,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}