{"area":{"county":"Osage County","state":"OK","stateName":"Oklahoma","slug":"osage-ok","metro":"Tulsa, OK HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":152348},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":160901},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":166652},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":173360},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":179308},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":182100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":185828},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":186262},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":189011},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":192226},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":191097},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":193643},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":198383},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":197185},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":203111},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":206267},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":204647},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":203743},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":212210},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":204914},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":208434}],"latest":208434,"yoy":1.8505035500153926,"fiveYr":36.81439861370021,"sinceStart":289.66181226748427,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1229}],"latest":1229,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":62847,"population":45997,"povertyRate":13.093004859306138,"medianHomeValue":182100,"medianGrossRent":777,"medianPropertyTax":1248},"hud":{"county":"Osage County","year":"2027","perUnit":1229,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Oklahoma","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":30862,"ratePer100k":374.24016949580044},"propertyCrime":{"total":138287,"ratePer100k":1676.9020257619648},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.470694943212374,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":208434,"monthlyRent":1229,"grossRent":1229,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OK","down":41686.8,"loan":166747.2,"mortgagePI":1081.5191652807957,"monthlyTax":118.98107499999999,"taxRatePct":0.685,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,248 tax ÷ $182,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":147.64075,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OK avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":61.45,"egi":1167.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":122.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":61.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":61.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":512.421825,"noi":655.1281749999999,"totalExpenses":1593.9409902807956,"cashFlow":-426.3909902807958,"annualCf":-5116.691883369549,"cocReturn":-12.274129660634898,"capRate":3.7717157949278906},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-518.5659902807956,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-463.2609902807957,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-463.3011777807958,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-597.5878517900036,"delta":-171,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-510.5692407631076,"delta":-84,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-597.5878517900036,"baselineCashFlow":-426.3909902807958,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.470694943212374,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":113005.99224286611,"totalCashOutlay":180633.31772375607,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OK avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":323280.25820495246,"equityBuilt":171894.68850836303,"netCostOfBuying":50425.429215393044,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":62580.563027473065},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.31653062198673,"price":208434,"medianIncome":62847,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.685,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,248 tax ÷ $182,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":208434,"secondary":182100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1229,"secondary":777,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.58,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":182100,"high":208434}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":777,"high":1229}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":182100,"high":208434}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":777,"high":1229}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Osage County, OK leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Osage County, OK a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Osage County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Osage County?","a":"The typical home value in Osage County is about $208,434 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.9% year-over-year, and up 36.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Osage County?","a":"The typical rent in Osage County is about $1,229/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Osage County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Osage County — roughly $62,581 ahead of renting, with about $171,895 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Osage County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Osage County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Osage County?","a":"Osage County's effective property tax rate is about 0.69% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,248 tax ÷ $182,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $208,434 median home is roughly $119/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Osage County, OK was $208,434 as of April 2026, up 1.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Osage County, OK was $1,229/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Osage County, OK has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=osage-ok","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=osage-ok"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:08:22.368Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Tulsa, OK HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tulsa, OK HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":208434,"countyFmr":1229,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tulsa, OK HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"OK","stateName":"Oklahoma","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}