{"area":{"county":"Orange County","state":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","slug":"orange-in","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":136913},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141585},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":146440},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":152001},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":156744},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":158700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":159425},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":161493},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":165670},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":167973},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":170919},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":173814},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":176106},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":179369},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":181983},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":182933},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":184388},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":184644},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":187963},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":190342},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":190899}],"latest":190899,"yoy":3.5311408551532635,"fiveYr":39.430879463600974,"sinceStart":273.87191539365455,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":65873,"population":19767,"povertyRate":13.416264007402075,"medianHomeValue":158700,"medianGrossRent":855,"medianPropertyTax":917},"hud":{"county":"Orange County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Indiana","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":29043,"ratePer100k":208.24331779365764},"propertyCrime":{"total":123972,"ratePer100k":888.900616104236},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.8749061117381105,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":190899,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IN","down":38179.8,"loan":152719.2,"mortgagePI":990.5338242942065,"monthlyTax":91.94968499999999,"taxRatePct":0.578,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($917 tax ÷ $158,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":85.90455000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":380.65423499999997,"noi":582.645765,"totalExpenses":1371.1880592942066,"cashFlow":-407.8880592942065,"annualCf":-4894.656711530479,"cocReturn":-12.820016635840101,"capRate":3.6625383998868513},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-483.9380592942065,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-438.3080592942065,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-429.3641967942066,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-564.6825825737399,"delta":-157,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-443.6354307200594,"delta":-36,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-564.6825825737399,"baselineCashFlow":-407.8880592942065,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.8749061117381105,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":160388.72320785807,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":304042.2073833992,"equityBuilt":165392.30444285585,"netCostOfBuying":33176.218765002224,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":60060.621051325055},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.897985517586872,"price":190899,"medianIncome":65873,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.578,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($917 tax ÷ $158,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":190899,"secondary":158700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":855,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158700,"high":190899}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158700,"high":190899}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Orange County, IN is a moderate market — a 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Orange County, IN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Orange County's 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Orange County?","a":"The typical home value in Orange County is about $190,899 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.5% year-over-year, and up 39.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Orange County?","a":"The typical rent in Orange County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Orange County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Orange County — roughly $60,061 ahead of renting, with about $165,392 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Orange County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Orange County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Orange County?","a":"Orange County's effective property tax rate is about 0.58% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($917 tax ÷ $158,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $190,899 median home is roughly $92/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Orange County, IN was $190,899 as of April 2026, up 3.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Orange County, IN was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Orange County, IN has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=orange-in","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=orange-in"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T18:09:03.140Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":190899,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}