{"area":{"county":"Orange County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"orange-fl","metro":"Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":304428},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":322840},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":340323},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":364379},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":378795},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":390100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":391625},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":387611},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":393378},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":406523},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":403473},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":409187},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":419966},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":420588},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":423445},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":418976},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":419125},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":417433},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":416697},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":426390},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":422148}],"latest":422148,"yoy":0.7212645392186102,"fiveYr":38.669241988253376,"sinceStart":381.71164489074,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1959}],"latest":1959,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79719,"population":1471937,"povertyRate":12.995191566296166,"medianHomeValue":390100,"medianGrossRent":1775,"medianPropertyTax":2967},"hud":{"county":"Orange County","year":"2027","perUnit":1959,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":95375,"ratePer100k":203.24971087928412},"propertyCrime":{"total":410246,"ratePer100k":874.2582530996885},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.757873873225928,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":422148,"monthlyRent":1959,"grossRent":1959,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":84429.6,"loan":337718.4,"mortgagePI":2190.435114160633,"monthlyTax":267.71219,"taxRatePct":0.761,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($2,967 tax ÷ $390,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":369.3795,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":97.95,"egi":1861.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":195.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":97.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":97.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1028.89169,"noi":832.15831,"totalExpenses":3219.326804160633,"cashFlow":-1358.276804160633,"annualCf":-16299.321649927595,"cocReturn":-19.305221924452553,"capRate":2.36549734216436},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1505.201804160633,"delta":-147,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1417.046804160633,"delta":-59,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1450.621679160633,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1705.007244935118,"delta":-347,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −24.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1721.4804548821219,"delta":-363,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1721.4804548821219,"baselineCashFlow":-1358.276804160633,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.757873873225928,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":180129.16094692817,"totalCashOutlay":370326.70990923734,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":667212.4605878574,"equityBuilt":360606.45832202875,"netCostOfBuying":94149.85158720857,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":85979.3093597196},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.295450269070109,"price":422148,"medianIncome":79719,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.761,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($2,967 tax ÷ $390,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":422148,"secondary":390100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1959,"secondary":1775,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.1,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":390100,"high":422148}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1775,"high":1959}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":390100,"high":422148}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1775,"high":1959}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Orange County, FL is a moderate market — a 18.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Orange County, FL a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Orange County's 18.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Orange County?","a":"The typical home value in Orange County is about $422,148 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.7% year-over-year, and up 38.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Orange County?","a":"The typical rent in Orange County is about $1,959/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Orange County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Orange County — roughly $85,979 ahead of renting, with about $360,606 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Orange County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Orange County's median home value is 5.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Orange County?","a":"Orange County's effective property tax rate is about 0.76% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($2,967 tax ÷ $390,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $422,148 median home is roughly $268/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Orange County, FL was $422,148 as of April 2026, up 0.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Orange County, FL was $1,959/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Orange County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=orange-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=orange-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T15:16:31.770Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":422148,"countyFmr":1959,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[{"city":"Orlando","state":"FL"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}