{"area":{"county":"Oktibbeha County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"oktibbeha-ms","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":201419},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":208751},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":219510},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":225650},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":232337},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":237700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":236161},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":241896},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":244015},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":243493},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":261187},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":246630},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":251943},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":256577},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":259656},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":262404},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":270117},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":267973},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":267775},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":272599},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":271375}],"latest":271375,"yoy":0.4657241121439969,"fiveYr":34.73157944384591,"sinceStart":227.9099554127044,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1024}],"latest":1024,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":46695,"population":51771,"povertyRate":25.534738995147638,"medianHomeValue":237700,"medianGrossRent":915,"medianPropertyTax":1691},"hud":{"county":"Oktibbeha County","year":"2027","perUnit":1024,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":9790,"ratePer100k":165.6985403634197},"propertyCrime":{"total":57848,"ratePer100k":979.0938879410729},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":22.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.1444828304302535,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":271375,"monthlyRent":1024,"grossRent":1024,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":54275,"loan":217100,"mortgagePI":1408.1064676495962,"monthlyTax":160.78968749999999,"taxRatePct":0.711,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($1,691 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":167.3479166666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.2,"egi":972.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":532.9376041666667,"noi":439.86239583333327,"totalExpenses":1941.0440718162629,"cashFlow":-968.2440718162629,"annualCf":-11618.928861795155,"cocReturn":-21.407515176038977,"capRate":1.9450386918470748},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1045.0440718162629,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-998.9640718162628,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1010.0810509829297,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1191.1374015612241,"delta":-223,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1017.2185004511839,"delta":-49,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1191.1374015612241,"baselineCashFlow":-968.2440718162629,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.1444828304302535,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94156.33527802676,"totalCashOutlay":227237.65112042474,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":411956.9309407222,"equityBuilt":214857.32638286715,"netCostOfBuying":66655.32473755759,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":27501.01054046917},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.811650069600599,"price":271375,"medianIncome":46695,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.711,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($1,691 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":271375,"secondary":237700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1024,"secondary":915,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237700,"high":271375}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":915,"high":1024}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237700,"high":271375}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":915,"high":1024}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Oktibbeha County, MS is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Oktibbeha County, MS a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.1x, Oktibbeha County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Oktibbeha County?","a":"The typical home value in Oktibbeha County is about $271,375 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 34.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Oktibbeha County?","a":"The typical rent in Oktibbeha County is about $1,024/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Oktibbeha County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Oktibbeha County — roughly $27,501 ahead of renting, with about $214,857 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Oktibbeha County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Oktibbeha County's median home value is 5.8x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Oktibbeha County?","a":"Oktibbeha County's effective property tax rate is about 0.71% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($1,691 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $271,375 median home is roughly $161/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Oktibbeha County, MS was $271,375 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Oktibbeha County, MS was $1,024/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Oktibbeha County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=oktibbeha-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=oktibbeha-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:54:11.624Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":271375,"countyFmr":1024,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}