{"area":{"county":"Northwest Hills Planning Region","state":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","slug":"northwest-hills-planning-region-ct","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":294172},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":303892},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":311184},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":323179},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":332788},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":335600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":338729},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":347842},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":358651},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":368136},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":377193},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":380337},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":390401},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":399789},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":410336},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":416250},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":420234},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":424797},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":429237},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":436061},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":439949}],"latest":439949,"yoy":4.691433820204933,"fiveYr":49.55502223189155,"sinceStart":219.12043115266604,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1560}],"latest":1560,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":93551,"population":113216,"povertyRate":8.82586611677959,"medianHomeValue":335600,"medianGrossRent":1193,"medianPropertyTax":5593},"hud":{"county":"Northwest Hills Planning Region","year":"2027","perUnit":1560,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Connecticut","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7652,"ratePer100k":103.72791511770652},"propertyCrime":{"total":82299,"ratePer100k":1115.6173139404245},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":23.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.383953038839053,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":439949,"monthlyRent":1560,"grossRent":1560,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CT","down":87989.8,"loan":351959.2,"mortgagePI":2282.800671896719,"monthlyTax":611.1624858333333,"taxRatePct":1.667,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($5,593 tax ÷ $335,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":190.64456666666663,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":78,"egi":1482,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":156,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":78,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":78,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1113.8070524999998,"noi":368.1929475000002,"totalExpenses":3396.607724396719,"cashFlow":-1914.6077243967188,"annualCf":-22975.292692760624,"cocReturn":-26.111313689496534,"capRate":1.0042789891555617},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2031.607724396719,"delta":-117,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1961.4077243967188,"delta":-47,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1962.2688660633858,"delta":-48,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2275.958981984802,"delta":-361,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1999.4655669596723,"delta":-85,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2275.958981984802,"baselineCashFlow":-1914.6077243967188,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.383953038839053,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":143441.2920251189,"totalCashOutlay":411218.56474936305,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":772960.3956262177,"equityBuilt":453425.5308611373,"netCostOfBuying":45782.83388822572,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":97658.45813689317},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.702771750168357,"price":439949,"medianIncome":93551,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.667,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($5,593 tax ÷ $335,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":439949,"secondary":335600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1560,"secondary":1193,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":335600,"high":439949}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1193,"high":1560}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":335600,"high":439949}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1193,"high":1560}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 23.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 23.5x, Northwest Hills Planning Region is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Northwest Hills Planning Region?","a":"The typical home value in Northwest Hills Planning Region is about $439,949 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 4.7% year-over-year, and up 49.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Northwest Hills Planning Region?","a":"The typical rent in Northwest Hills Planning Region is about $1,560/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Northwest Hills Planning Region?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Northwest Hills Planning Region — roughly $97,658 ahead of renting, with about $453,426 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Northwest Hills Planning Region affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Northwest Hills Planning Region's median home value is 4.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Northwest Hills Planning Region?","a":"Northwest Hills Planning Region's effective property tax rate is about 1.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($5,593 tax ÷ $335,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $439,949 median home is roughly $611/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT was $439,949 as of April 2026, up 4.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT was $1,560/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=northwest-hills-planning-region-ct","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=northwest-hills-planning-region-ct"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:46:45.579Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2019","2020","2021","2019","2020","2021"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":439949,"countyFmr":1560,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}