{"area":{"county":"Northwest Arctic Borough","state":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","slug":"northwest-arctic-borough-ak","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":174359},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":181809},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":187070},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":189653},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":195137},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":199100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":197527},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":201625},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":203098},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":204549},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":210443},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":209246},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":213843},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":218810},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":218522},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":222274},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":221100},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":220965},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":228538},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":236670},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":239459}],"latest":239459,"yoy":8.303482587064677,"fiveYr":37.33675921518247,"sinceStart":307.8466438437825,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2005}],"latest":2005,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":84018,"population":7441,"povertyRate":17.861994023363216,"medianHomeValue":199100,"medianGrossRent":1350,"medianPropertyTax":199},"hud":{"county":"Northwest Arctic Borough","year":"2027","perUnit":2005,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alaska","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8111,"ratePer100k":547.9420590623578},"propertyCrime":{"total":20573,"ratePer100k":1389.8177759943146},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":6.551883705814232,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":239459,"monthlyRent":2005,"grossRent":2005,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AK","down":47891.8,"loan":191567.2,"mortgagePI":1242.5012128490268,"monthlyTax":19.954916666666666,"taxRatePct":0.1,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.10% ($199 tax ÷ $199,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":103.76556666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":100.25,"egi":1904.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":200.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":100.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":100.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":524.7204833333333,"noi":1380.0295166666667,"totalExpenses":1767.2216961823601,"cashFlow":137.52830381763988,"annualCf":1650.3396458116786,"cocReturn":3.445975398318039,"capRate":6.915736806718479},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-12.84669618236012,"delta":-150,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":77.37830381763979,"delta":-60,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":111.58691215097315,"delta":-26,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-59.150881248776386,"delta":-197,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":57.91235033451903,"delta":-80,"survives":true}],"survived":3,"total":5,"score":60,"worstCashFlow":-59.150881248776386,"baselineCashFlow":137.52830381763988,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.551883705814232,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":184358.84007074576,"totalCashOutlay":207657.36533561116,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":373386.90937096433,"equityBuilt":199467.88879862207,"netCostOfBuying":56081.276536989084,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":128277.56353375668},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8500916470280178,"price":239459,"medianIncome":84018,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.1,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.10% ($199 tax ÷ $199,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":239459,"secondary":199100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2005,"secondary":1350,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.49,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":199100,"high":239459}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1350,"high":2005}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":199100,"high":239459}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1350,"high":2005}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Northwest Arctic Borough, AK leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (138/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Northwest Arctic Borough, AK a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Northwest Arctic Borough's price-to-rent ratio of 10.0 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $138/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Northwest Arctic Borough?","a":"The typical home value in Northwest Arctic Borough is about $239,459 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 8.3% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Northwest Arctic Borough?","a":"The typical rent in Northwest Arctic Borough is about $2,005/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Northwest Arctic Borough?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Northwest Arctic Borough — roughly $128,278 ahead of renting, with about $199,468 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Northwest Arctic Borough affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Northwest Arctic Borough's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Northwest Arctic Borough?","a":"Northwest Arctic Borough's effective property tax rate is about 0.10% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.10% ($199 tax ÷ $199,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $239,459 median home is roughly $20/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Northwest Arctic Borough, AK was $239,459 as of April 2026, up 8.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Northwest Arctic Borough, AK was $2,005/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Northwest Arctic Borough, AK has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=northwest-arctic-borough-ak","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=northwest-arctic-borough-ak"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:45:54.872Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":239459,"countyFmr":2005,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}