{"area":{"county":"Nome Census Area","state":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","slug":"nome-census-area-ak","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":184955},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":192858},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":198439},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":201179},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":206996},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":211200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":209531},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":213878},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":215441},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":216980},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":223233},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":221962},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":226839},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":232108},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":231802},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":235782},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":234537},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":234393},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":242428},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":251053},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":254012}],"latest":254012,"yoy":8.303593889237092,"fiveYr":37.33719012732827,"sinceStart":307.8483004447584,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1638}],"latest":1638,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":78681,"population":9866,"povertyRate":21.510536198622994,"medianHomeValue":211200,"medianGrossRent":1394,"medianPropertyTax":3264},"hud":{"county":"Nome Census Area","year":"2027","perUnit":1638,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alaska","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8111,"ratePer100k":547.9420590623578},"propertyCrime":{"total":20573,"ratePer100k":1389.8177759943146},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.551950578994714,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":254012,"monthlyRent":1638,"grossRent":1638,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AK","down":50802.4,"loan":203209.6,"mortgagePI":1318.0135976438849,"monthlyTax":327.04044999999996,"taxRatePct":1.545,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($3,264 tax ÷ $211,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":110.07186666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":81.9,"egi":1556.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":163.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":81.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":81.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":764.7123166666665,"noi":791.3876833333334,"totalExpenses":2082.725914310551,"cashFlow":-526.6259143105515,"annualCf":-6319.510971726618,"cocReturn":-12.439394539877284,"capRate":3.738662819079414},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-649.4759143105516,"delta":-123,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-575.7659143105514,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-554.1438809772183,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-735.2581776921345,"delta":-209,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-591.673328256581,"delta":-65,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-735.2581776921345,"baselineCashFlow":-526.6259143105515,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.551950578994714,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":150613.35662637485,"totalCashOutlay":220277.75699188665,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":396081.0506328567,"equityBuilt":211592.18926777222,"netCostOfBuying":59487.96772411442,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":91125.38890226043},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.2283778803014704,"price":254012,"medianIncome":78681,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.545,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($3,264 tax ÷ $211,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":254012,"secondary":211200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1638,"secondary":1394,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":211200,"high":254012}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1394,"high":1638}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":211200,"high":254012}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1394,"high":1638}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Nome Census Area, AK leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Nome Census Area, AK a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Nome Census Area's price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Nome Census Area?","a":"The typical home value in Nome Census Area is about $254,012 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 8.3% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Nome Census Area?","a":"The typical rent in Nome Census Area is about $1,638/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Nome Census Area?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Nome Census Area — roughly $91,125 ahead of renting, with about $211,592 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Nome Census Area affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Nome Census Area's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Nome Census Area?","a":"Nome Census Area's effective property tax rate is about 1.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($3,264 tax ÷ $211,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $254,012 median home is roughly $327/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Nome Census Area, AK was $254,012 as of April 2026, up 8.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Nome Census Area, AK was $1,638/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Nome Census Area, AK has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=nome-census-area-ak","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=nome-census-area-ak"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:38:17.658Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":254012,"countyFmr":1638,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}