{"area":{"county":"Newaygo County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"newaygo-mi","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":164807},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":170921},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":176493},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":183393},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":186915},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":186700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":187690},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":190741},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":195213},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":200511},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":204139},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":206252},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":210666},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":214043},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":214276},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":220447},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":220383},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":222561},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":226584},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":227865},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":228756}],"latest":228756,"yoy":3.799294863941411,"fiveYr":38.80235669601412,"sinceStart":292.8827823100043,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1028}],"latest":1028,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63304,"population":50792,"povertyRate":12.82000238882032,"medianHomeValue":186700,"medianGrossRent":904,"medianPropertyTax":2055},"hud":{"county":"Newaygo County","year":"2027","perUnit":1028,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.778365129237263,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":228756,"monthlyRent":1028,"grossRent":1028,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":45751.200000000004,"loan":183004.8,"mortgagePI":1186.9656494284698,"monthlyTax":209.88362999999995,"taxRatePct":1.101,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($2,055 tax ÷ $186,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":87.68979999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.400000000000006,"egi":976.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.80000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.400000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.400000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":503.17342999999994,"noi":473.4265700000001,"totalExpenses":1690.1390794284698,"cashFlow":-713.5390794284697,"annualCf":-8562.468953141637,"cocReturn":-18.715288239743735,"capRate":2.4834840791061223},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-790.6390794284696,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-744.3790794284697,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-735.4615294284697,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-901.4273762101866,"delta":-188,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-811.4989855129936,"delta":-98,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-901.4273762101866,"baselineCashFlow":-713.5390794284697,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.778365129237263,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94524.13346270655,"totalCashOutlay":201299.23979894325,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":362039.00605934474,"equityBuilt":195893.57210177064,"netCostOfBuying":51156.86769717262,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":43367.26576553393},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6136105143434856,"price":228756,"medianIncome":63304,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.101,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($2,055 tax ÷ $186,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":228756,"secondary":186700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1028,"secondary":904,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":186700,"high":228756}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":904,"high":1028}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":186700,"high":228756}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":904,"high":1028}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Newaygo County, MI is a moderate market — a 18.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Newaygo County, MI a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Newaygo County's 18.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Newaygo County?","a":"The typical home value in Newaygo County is about $228,756 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Newaygo County?","a":"The typical rent in Newaygo County is about $1,028/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Newaygo County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Newaygo County — roughly $43,367 ahead of renting, with about $195,894 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Newaygo County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Newaygo County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Newaygo County?","a":"Newaygo County's effective property tax rate is about 1.10% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($2,055 tax ÷ $186,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $228,756 median home is roughly $210/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Newaygo County, MI was $228,756 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Newaygo County, MI was $1,028/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Newaygo County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=newaygo-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=newaygo-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:45:18.799Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":228756,"countyFmr":1028,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}