{"area":{"county":"New York County","state":"NY","stateName":"New York","slug":"new-york-ny","metro":"New York, NY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":975582},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":1001368},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":1017182},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":1065923},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":1094778},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":1090500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":1083921},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":1092536},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":1112894},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":1142457},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":1179691},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":1198957},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":1229523},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":1242918},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":1275756},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":1303873},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":1309420},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":1328421},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":1334676},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":1338924},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":1382413}],"latest":1382413,"yoy":5.574452811168303,"fiveYr":41.70136390380306,"sinceStart":368.54945583834115,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2971}],"latest":2971,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":103931,"population":1629477,"povertyRate":16.524508369221337,"medianHomeValue":1090500,"medianGrossRent":2197,"medianPropertyTax":10001},"hud":{"county":"New York County","year":"2027","perUnit":2971,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New York","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":140684,"ratePer100k":351.6673251700906},"propertyCrime":{"total":600711,"ratePer100k":1501.5952814126006},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":38.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.220777230764952,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":1382413,"monthlyRent":2971,"grossRent":2971,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":276482.60000000003,"loan":1105930.4,"mortgagePI":7173.043523769253,"monthlyTax":1056.3939341666667,"taxRatePct":0.917,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,090,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":576.0054166666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":148.55,"egi":2822.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":297.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":148.55,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":148.55,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":2226.5993508333336,"noi":595.8506491666662,"totalExpenses":9399.642874602587,"cashFlow":-6577.192874602586,"annualCf":-78926.31449523102,"cocReturn":-28.54657562364902,"capRate":0.5172266023250646},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-6800.017874602587,"delta":-223,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-6666.322874602586,"delta":-89,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-6721.194228769253,"delta":-144,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-7712.63511008014,"delta":-1135,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-6761.275388918146,"delta":-184,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-7712.63511008014,"baselineCashFlow":-6577.192874602586,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.220777230764952,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":273182.1016709155,"totalCashOutlay":1259622.26145589,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":2252114.49891084,"equityBuilt":1248068.2321742673,"netCostOfBuying":288036.6292816228,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":14854.52761070733},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":13.301257565115318,"price":1382413,"medianIncome":103931,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.917,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,090,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":1382413,"secondary":1090500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2971,"secondary":2197,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1090500,"high":1382413}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":2197,"high":2971}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1090500,"high":1382413}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":2197,"high":2971}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"New York County, NY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 38.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is New York County, NY a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 38.8x, New York County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in New York County?","a":"The typical home value in New York County is about $1,382,413 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 41.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in New York County?","a":"The typical rent in New York County is about $2,971/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in New York County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in New York County by about $14,855 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is New York County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"New York County's median home value is 13.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in New York County?","a":"New York County's effective property tax rate is about 0.92% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.92% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,090,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $1,382,413 median home is roughly $1,056/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in New York County, NY was $1,382,413 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in New York County, NY was $2,971/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","New York County, NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 38.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=new-york-ny","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=new-york-ny"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:04:26.814Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, New York, NY HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"New York, NY HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":1382413,"countyFmr":2971,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"New York, NY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NY","stateName":"New York","cityPages":[{"city":"New York","state":"NY"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}