{"area":{"county":"Nevada County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"nevada-ca","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":555000},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":582142},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":604710},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":628496},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":637298},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":621800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":612701},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":609673},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":624266},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":635644},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":642386},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":646444},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":650049},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":655543},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":658087},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":657962},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":652391},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":651985},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":654576},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":655137},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":651064}],"latest":651064,"yoy":-0.2034056263804988,"fiveYr":17.30882882882883,"sinceStart":317.150838704717,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1885}],"latest":1885,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":89882,"population":102481,"povertyRate":11.01026823547961,"medianHomeValue":621800,"medianGrossRent":1677,"medianPropertyTax":4694},"hud":{"county":"Nevada County","year":"2027","perUnit":1885,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":297608,"ratePer100k":377.37568791544925},"propertyCrime":{"total":1224544,"ratePer100k":1552.757769894411},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":28.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.2447645555047977,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":651064,"monthlyRent":1885,"grossRent":1885,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":130212.8,"loan":520851.2,"mortgagePI":3378.23096915271,"monthlyTax":409.6277666666667,"taxRatePct":0.755,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($4,694 tax ÷ $621,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":352.6596666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":94.25,"egi":1790.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":188.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":94.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":94.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1139.2874333333334,"noi":651.4625666666666,"totalExpenses":4517.518402486043,"cashFlow":-2726.768402486043,"annualCf":-32721.22082983252,"cocReturn":-25.129035570875153,"capRate":1.2007346128798395},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2868.143402486043,"delta":-141,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2783.318402486043,"delta":-57,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2814.93331915271,"delta":-88,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3261.518555731823,"delta":-535,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −28.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-07-01 → 2008-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3126.1604220159097,"delta":-399,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3261.518555731823,"baselineCashFlow":-2726.768402486043,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.2447645555047977,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":173324.89453035197,"totalCashOutlay":534605.0502132688,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":814141.6061898147,"equityBuilt":341273.96200057375,"netCostOfBuying":323543.8882126951,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":150218.9936823431},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.243541532231148,"price":651064,"medianIncome":89882,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.755,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($4,694 tax ÷ $621,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":651064,"secondary":621800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1885,"secondary":1677,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":621800,"high":651064}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1677,"high":1885}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":621800,"high":651064}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1677,"high":1885}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Nevada County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 28.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Nevada County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 28.8x, Nevada County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Nevada County?","a":"The typical home value in Nevada County is about $651,064 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.2% year-over-year, and up 17.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Nevada County?","a":"The typical rent in Nevada County is about $1,885/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Nevada County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Nevada County by about $150,219 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Nevada County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Nevada County's median home value is 7.2x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Nevada County?","a":"Nevada County's effective property tax rate is about 0.76% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($4,694 tax ÷ $621,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $651,064 median home is roughly $410/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Nevada County, CA was $651,064 as of April 2026, down 0.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Nevada County, CA was $1,885/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Nevada County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 28.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=nevada-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=nevada-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:09:04.505Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":651064,"countyFmr":1885,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}