{"area":{"county":"Navarro County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"navarro-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":144692},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":151900},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":158526},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":164968},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":172571},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":172600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":172869},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":172979},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":174393},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":176956},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":177082},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":178215},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":179270},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":179609},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":181092},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":182033},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":180204},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":179768},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":180089},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":179792},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":181023}],"latest":181023,"yoy":0.4544849170939602,"fiveYr":25.10919746772455,"sinceStart":344.25002454108176,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1139}],"latest":1139,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63111,"population":54711,"povertyRate":17.11686309893043,"medianHomeValue":172600,"medianGrossRent":1076,"medianPropertyTax":2075},"hud":{"county":"Navarro County","year":"2027","perUnit":1139,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":236610,"ratePer100k":373.0863066051366},"propertyCrime":{"total":1238795,"ratePer100k":1953.3301685935094},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":13.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.5828593873932455,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":181023,"monthlyRent":1139,"grossRent":1139,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":36204.6,"loan":144818.4,"mortgagePI":939.2893858805448,"monthlyTax":181.324705,"taxRatePct":1.202,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.20% ($2,075 tax ÷ $172,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":128.224625,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.95,"egi":1082.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":113.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":537.34933,"noi":544.70067,"totalExpenses":1476.6387158805449,"cashFlow":-394.5887158805449,"annualCf":-4735.064590566539,"cocReturn":-13.078626999239154,"capRate":3.61081632720704},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-480.01371588054474,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-428.75871588054474,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-426.64487213054497,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-543.2716057208843,"delta":-149,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-416.9385075717763,"delta":-22,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-543.2716057208843,"baselineCashFlow":-394.5887158805449,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.5828593873932455,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":104730.53308757079,"totalCashOutlay":165313.14890706138,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":247717.87138211014,"equityBuilt":116240.90513291056,"netCostOfBuying":85276.84377415082,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":19453.689313419964},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8683272329704805,"price":181023,"medianIncome":63111,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.202,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.20% ($2,075 tax ÷ $172,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":181023,"secondary":172600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1139,"secondary":1076,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":172600,"high":181023}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1076,"high":1139}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":172600,"high":181023}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1076,"high":1139}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Navarro County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Navarro County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Navarro County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Navarro County?","a":"The typical home value in Navarro County is about $181,023 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Navarro County?","a":"The typical rent in Navarro County is about $1,139/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Navarro County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Navarro County — roughly $19,454 ahead of renting, with about $116,241 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Navarro County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Navarro County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Navarro County?","a":"Navarro County's effective property tax rate is about 1.20% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.20% ($2,075 tax ÷ $172,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $181,023 median home is roughly $181/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Navarro County, TX was $181,023 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Navarro County, TX was $1,139/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Navarro County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=navarro-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=navarro-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:04:21.631Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":181023,"countyFmr":1139,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}