{"area":{"county":"Naugatuck Valley Planning Region","state":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","slug":"naugatuck-valley-planning-region-ct","metro":"Waterbury-Shelton, CT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":265577},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":282595},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":287391},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":297711},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":311680},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":317700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":317127},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":321596},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":338627},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":351384},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":353886},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":353782},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":367269},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":373171},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":383179},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":383830},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":396705},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":402282},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":401539},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":408954},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":412172}],"latest":412172,"yoy":3.8988669162223824,"fiveYr":55.19868060863704,"sinceStart":617.2574610632558,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1745}],"latest":1745,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":86191,"population":454969,"povertyRate":11.21286660359508,"medianHomeValue":317700,"medianGrossRent":1330,"medianPropertyTax":5983},"hud":{"county":"Naugatuck Valley Planning Region","year":"2027","perUnit":1745,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Connecticut","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7652,"ratePer100k":103.72791511770652},"propertyCrime":{"total":82299,"ratePer100k":1115.6173139404245},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.189991433577504,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":412172,"monthlyRent":1745,"grossRent":1745,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CT","down":82434.40000000001,"loan":329737.6,"mortgagePI":2138.6717972697165,"monthlyTax":646.7665633333334,"taxRatePct":1.883,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.88% ($5,983 tax ÷ $317,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":178.60786666666664,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":87.25,"egi":1657.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":174.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":87.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":87.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1174.3744299999998,"noi":483.37557000000015,"totalExpenses":3313.0462272697164,"cashFlow":-1655.2962272697164,"annualCf":-19863.554727236595,"cocReturn":-24.096196159899986,"capRate":1.407302495074872},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1786.1712272697168,"delta":-131,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1707.6462272697163,"delta":-52,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1699.9481939363832,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1993.832899799021,"delta":-339,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-01-01) (home values −8.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1989-10-01 → 1990-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1768.194903843758,"delta":-113,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1993.832899799021,"baselineCashFlow":-1655.2962272697164,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.189991433577504,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":160451.95806655925,"totalCashOutlay":388336.9424127596,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":762708.0128721661,"equityBuilt":463347.57727632945,"netCostOfBuying":7423.765136430156,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":153028.1929301291},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.782077015001566,"price":412172,"medianIncome":86191,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.883,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.88% ($5,983 tax ÷ $317,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":412172,"secondary":317700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1745,"secondary":1330,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":317700,"high":412172}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1330,"high":1745}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":317700,"high":412172}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1330,"high":1745}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT is a moderate market — a 19.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Naugatuck Valley Planning Region's 19.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region?","a":"The typical home value in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region is about $412,172 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 55.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region?","a":"The typical rent in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region is about $1,745/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region — roughly $153,028 ahead of renting, with about $463,348 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Naugatuck Valley Planning Region affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Naugatuck Valley Planning Region's median home value is 4.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region?","a":"Naugatuck Valley Planning Region's effective property tax rate is about 1.88% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.88% ($5,983 tax ÷ $317,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $412,172 median home is roughly $647/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT was $412,172 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT was $1,745/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=naugatuck-valley-planning-region-ct","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=naugatuck-valley-planning-region-ct"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:45:39.744Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Waterbury-Shelton, CT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Waterbury-Shelton, CT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2019","2020","2021","2019","2020","2021"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":412172,"countyFmr":1745,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Waterbury-Shelton, CT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}