{"area":{"county":"Napa County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"napa-ca","metro":"Napa, CA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":732312},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":773053},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":796719},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":809827},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":846811},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":869500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":784819},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":818412},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":807335},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":828185},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":827399},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":856987},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":845163},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":843151},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":858347},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":851468},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":874118},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":844550},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":867469},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":853116},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":858117}],"latest":858117,"yoy":-1.8305308894222518,"fiveYr":17.179153147838626,"sinceStart":1233.9297372920876,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":3375}],"latest":3375,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":111471,"population":134869,"povertyRate":8.457222365058,"medianHomeValue":869500,"medianGrossRent":2237,"medianPropertyTax":5995},"hud":{"county":"Napa County","year":"2027","perUnit":3375,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":297608,"ratePer100k":377.37568791544925},"propertyCrime":{"total":1224544,"ratePer100k":1552.757769894411},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.221925536927306,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":858117,"monthlyRent":3375,"grossRent":3375,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":171623.40000000002,"loan":686493.6,"mortgagePI":4452.5844226626195,"monthlyTax":492.7021775,"taxRatePct":0.689,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($5,995 tax ÷ $869,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":464.813375,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":168.75,"egi":3206.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":337.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":168.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":168.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1632.5155525,"noi":1573.7344475,"totalExpenses":6085.09997516262,"cashFlow":-2878.8499751626196,"annualCf":-34546.19970195144,"cocReturn":-20.129073134520954,"capRate":2.2007271001506785},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3131.9749751626196,"delta":-253,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2980.0999751626196,"delta":-101,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2995.0533189126195,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3583.6627082469386,"delta":-705,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1978-07-01) (home values −20.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3396.5944849697144,"delta":-518,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3583.6627082469386,"baselineCashFlow":-2878.8499751626196,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.221925536927306,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":310329.71832357446,"totalCashOutlay":704511.5314888182,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1071396.4420026576,"equityBuilt":448146.2481219657,"netCostOfBuying":427988.6833668526,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":117658.96504327812},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.6981187932287325,"price":858117,"medianIncome":111471,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.689,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($5,995 tax ÷ $869,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":858117,"secondary":869500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":0.99,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":3375,"secondary":2237,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.51,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.99,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":858117,"high":869500}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.51,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":2237,"high":3375}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.99,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":858117,"high":869500}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.51,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":2237,"high":3375}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Napa County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Napa County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.2x, Napa County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Napa County?","a":"The typical home value in Napa County is about $858,117 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.8% year-over-year, and up 17.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Napa County?","a":"The typical rent in Napa County is about $3,375/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Napa County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Napa County by about $117,659 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Napa County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Napa County's median home value is 7.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Napa County?","a":"Napa County's effective property tax rate is about 0.69% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($5,995 tax ÷ $869,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $858,117 median home is roughly $493/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Napa County, CA was $858,117 as of April 2026, down 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Napa County, CA was $3,375/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Napa County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=napa-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=napa-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:38:11.904Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Napa, CA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Napa, CA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":858117,"countyFmr":3375,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Napa, CA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}