{"area":{"county":"Musselshell County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"musselshell-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":191667},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":207524},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":215766},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":227415},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":236540},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":235000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":238115},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":240428},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":244869},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":244996},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":247687},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":251764},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":255508},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":260552},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":266768},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":265323},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":262153},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":264713},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":263242},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":264745},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":269444}],"latest":269444,"yoy":2.7812002914328655,"fiveYr":40.57923377524561,"sinceStart":642.0655466813549,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1348}],"latest":1348,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":58920,"population":5152,"povertyRate":17.026284817575522,"medianHomeValue":235000,"medianGrossRent":1138,"medianPropertyTax":1287},"hud":{"county":"Musselshell County","year":"2027","perUnit":1348,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.050397631205763,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":269444,"monthlyRent":1348,"grossRent":1348,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":53888.8,"loan":215555.2,"mortgagePI":1398.0869242538104,"monthlyTax":123.04609333333333,"taxRatePct":0.548,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,287 tax ÷ $235,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":139.21273333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67.4,"egi":1280.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":134.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":531.8588266666667,"noi":748.7411733333332,"totalExpenses":1929.9457509204772,"cashFlow":-649.3457509204771,"annualCf":-7792.149011045725,"cocReturn":-14.459681809663094,"capRate":3.3346053651222514},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-750.4457509204772,"delta":-101,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-689.785750920477,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-684.1489342538105,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-870.6530575618457,"delta":-221,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-725.8906010465391,"delta":-77,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-870.6530575618457,"baselineCashFlow":-649.3457509204771,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.050397631205763,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":123947.98823708993,"totalCashOutlay":226909.85873901434,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":434096.7263058997,"equityBuilt":238399.60663575077,"netCostOfBuying":42399.05210326359,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":81548.93613382634},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.573048200950441,"price":269444,"medianIncome":58920,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.548,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,287 tax ÷ $235,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":269444,"secondary":235000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1348,"secondary":1138,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":235000,"high":269444}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1138,"high":1348}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":235000,"high":269444}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1138,"high":1348}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Musselshell County, MT is a moderate market — a 16.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Musselshell County, MT a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Musselshell County's 16.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Musselshell County?","a":"The typical home value in Musselshell County is about $269,444 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Musselshell County?","a":"The typical rent in Musselshell County is about $1,348/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Musselshell County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Musselshell County — roughly $81,549 ahead of renting, with about $238,400 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Musselshell County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Musselshell County's median home value is 4.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Musselshell County?","a":"Musselshell County's effective property tax rate is about 0.55% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,287 tax ÷ $235,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $269,444 median home is roughly $123/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Musselshell County, MT was $269,444 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Musselshell County, MT was $1,348/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Musselshell County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=musselshell-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=musselshell-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T08:07:36.976Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":269444,"countyFmr":1348,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}