{"area":{"county":"Morgan County","state":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","slug":"morgan-wv","metro":"Morgan County, WV HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":201634},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":213110},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":220434},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":228362},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":239260},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":240600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":236369},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":239645},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":246802},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":253153},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":259286},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":263175},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":267476},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":263491},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":278252},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":272426},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":281029},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":289675},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":278243},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":288133},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":283622}],"latest":283622,"yoy":0.9226805774493024,"fiveYr":40.66179314996479,"sinceStart":309.6156901257925,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":979}],"latest":979,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72179,"population":17426,"povertyRate":11.165048543689322,"medianHomeValue":240600,"medianGrossRent":794,"medianPropertyTax":1125},"hud":{"county":"Morgan County","year":"2027","perUnit":979,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"West Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7321,"ratePer100k":206.81036328679608},"propertyCrime":{"total":30696,"ratePer100k":867.1289320381767},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.062970111565692,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":283622,"monthlyRent":979,"grossRent":979,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WV","down":56724.4,"loan":226897.6,"mortgagePI":1471.6535147589636,"monthlyTax":110.61258,"taxRatePct":0.468,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,125 tax ÷ $240,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":122.90286666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48.95,"egi":930.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":97.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":429.3154466666666,"noi":500.73455333333334,"totalExpenses":1900.9689614256304,"cashFlow":-970.9189614256303,"annualCf":-11651.027537107564,"cocReturn":-20.539710489855448,"capRate":2.1185996290837807},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1044.3439614256304,"delta":-73,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1000.2889614256303,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1001.644678092297,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1203.8713408597177,"delta":-233,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1988-10-01) (home values −13.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1066.6379337576461,"delta":-96,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1203.8713408597177,"baselineCashFlow":-970.9189614256303,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.062970111565692,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":90018.6057003791,"totalCashOutlay":231248.70333400814,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":457314.45211921714,"equityBuilt":251319.85407625866,"netCostOfBuying":36653.24925774947,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":53365.356442629636},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9294254561576083,"price":283622,"medianIncome":72179,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.468,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,125 tax ÷ $240,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":283622,"secondary":240600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":979,"secondary":794,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":240600,"high":283622}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":794,"high":979}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":240600,"high":283622}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":794,"high":979}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Morgan County, WV is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Morgan County, WV a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.1x, Morgan County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Morgan County?","a":"The typical home value in Morgan County is about $283,622 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.9% year-over-year, and up 40.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Morgan County?","a":"The typical rent in Morgan County is about $979/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Morgan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Morgan County — roughly $53,365 ahead of renting, with about $251,320 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Morgan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Morgan County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Morgan County?","a":"Morgan County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,125 tax ÷ $240,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $283,622 median home is roughly $111/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Morgan County, WV was $283,622 as of April 2026, up 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Morgan County, WV was $979/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Morgan County, WV has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=morgan-wv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=morgan-wv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:42:55.777Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Morgan County, WV HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgan County, WV HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":283622,"countyFmr":979,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgan County, WV HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}