{"area":{"county":"Morgan County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"morgan-tn","metro":"Morgan County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":132603},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141604},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":145768},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":158719},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":165302},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":166300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":167064},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":169700},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":176903},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":181668},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":186173},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":189959},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":190657},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":194412},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":198854},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":196468},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":196873},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":199307},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":196585},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":205967},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":200391}],"latest":200391,"yoy":1.7869387879495917,"fiveYr":51.12101536164341,"sinceStart":413.8757821315006,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":995}],"latest":995,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":65954,"population":21361,"povertyRate":15.145488800502408,"medianHomeValue":166300,"medianGrossRent":770,"medianPropertyTax":871},"hud":{"county":"Morgan County","year":"2027","perUnit":995,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.610017306219508,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":200391,"monthlyRent":995,"grossRent":995,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":40078.200000000004,"loan":160312.8,"mortgagePI":1039.7857693552103,"monthlyTax":87.50407,"taxRatePct":0.524,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($871 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":100.1955,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.75,"egi":945.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":99.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":386.69957,"noi":558.55043,"totalExpenses":1426.4853393552103,"cashFlow":-481.2353393552103,"annualCf":-5774.824072262523,"cocReturn":-14.40889079914398,"capRate":3.344763567226073},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-555.8603393552103,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-511.0853393552103,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-506.2842143552102,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-645.8260984189506,"delta":-165,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-528.0768283732981,"delta":-47,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-645.8260984189506,"baselineCashFlow":-481.2353393552103,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.610017306219508,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":91489.79843909829,"totalCashOutlay":166223.9804665409,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":357246.0148052198,"equityBuilt":211702.07429134395,"netCostOfBuying":-5399.893824803032,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":96889.69226390132},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.0383449070564335,"price":200391,"medianIncome":65954,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.524,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($871 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":200391,"secondary":166300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":995,"secondary":770,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.29,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":200391}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":770,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":200391}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":770,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Morgan County, TN is a moderate market — a 16.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Morgan County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Morgan County's 16.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Morgan County?","a":"The typical home value in Morgan County is about $200,391 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 51.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Morgan County?","a":"The typical rent in Morgan County is about $995/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Morgan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Morgan County — roughly $96,890 ahead of renting, with about $211,702 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Morgan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Morgan County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Morgan County?","a":"Morgan County's effective property tax rate is about 0.52% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($871 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $200,391 median home is roughly $88/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Morgan County, TN was $200,391 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Morgan County, TN was $995/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Morgan County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=morgan-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=morgan-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:17:38.904Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Morgan County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgan County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":200391,"countyFmr":995,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgan County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}