{"area":{"county":"Montgomery County","state":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","slug":"montgomery-in","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":148214},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":153272},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":158528},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":164548},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":169683},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":171800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":172585},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":174824},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":179345},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":181838},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":185027},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":188161},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":190643},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":194175},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":197005},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":198033},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":199609},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":199885},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":203478},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":206054},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":206656}],"latest":206656,"yoy":3.5304019357844587,"fiveYr":39.43082299917687,"sinceStart":273.86883763003163,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1046}],"latest":1046,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71479,"population":38312,"povertyRate":10.525743489370956,"medianHomeValue":171800,"medianGrossRent":858,"medianPropertyTax":1116},"hud":{"county":"Montgomery County","year":"2027","perUnit":1046,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Indiana","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":29043,"ratePer100k":208.24331779365764},"propertyCrime":{"total":123972,"ratePer100k":888.900616104236},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.87489745446328,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":206656,"monthlyRent":1046,"grossRent":1046,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IN","down":41331.200000000004,"loan":165324.8,"mortgagePI":1072.2935059552094,"monthlyTax":111.93866666666668,"taxRatePct":0.65,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.65% ($1,116 tax ÷ $171,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":92.99520000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":52.300000000000004,"egi":993.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":104.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":52.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":52.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":414.13386666666673,"noi":579.5661333333333,"totalExpenses":1486.4273726218762,"cashFlow":-492.72737262187616,"annualCf":-5912.728471462514,"cocReturn":-14.305726597491757,"capRate":3.365396407556519},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-571.1773726218762,"delta":-78,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-524.1073726218763,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-515.9761726218761,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-662.4638772806497,"delta":-170,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-529.6096295876844,"delta":-37,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-662.4638772806497,"baselineCashFlow":-492.72737262187616,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.87489745446328,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":96179.22529376562,"totalCashOutlay":173627.3623824884,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":329137.97757729824,"equityBuilt":179043.76890108248,"netCostOfBuying":35914.79348140594,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":60264.431812359675},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8911428531456793,"price":206656,"medianIncome":71479,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.65,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.65% ($1,116 tax ÷ $171,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":206656,"secondary":171800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1046,"secondary":858,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171800,"high":206656}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":858,"high":1046}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171800,"high":206656}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":858,"high":1046}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Montgomery County, IN is a moderate market — a 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Montgomery County, IN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Montgomery County's 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical home value in Montgomery County is about $206,656 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.5% year-over-year, and up 39.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical rent in Montgomery County is about $1,046/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Montgomery County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Montgomery County — roughly $60,264 ahead of renting, with about $179,044 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Montgomery County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Montgomery County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Montgomery County?","a":"Montgomery County's effective property tax rate is about 0.65% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.65% ($1,116 tax ÷ $171,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $206,656 median home is roughly $112/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Montgomery County, IN was $206,656 as of April 2026, up 3.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Montgomery County, IN was $1,046/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Montgomery County, IN has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=montgomery-in","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=montgomery-in"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:33:23.682Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":206656,"countyFmr":1046,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}