{"area":{"county":"Montgomery County","state":"IL","stateName":"Illinois","slug":"montgomery-il","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":99820},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":103267},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":106004},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":109545},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":111840},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":112300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":113323},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":114651},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":117569},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":120607},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":122949},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":125433},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":127036},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":129051},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":131974},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":133246},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":136065},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":138471},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":140366},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":142971},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":143697}],"latest":143697,"yoy":5.609083893727263,"fiveYr":43.9561210178321,"sinceStart":234.38125378135615,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":930}],"latest":930,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63620,"population":27942,"povertyRate":12.604418768053712,"medianHomeValue":112300,"medianGrossRent":723,"medianPropertyTax":1887},"hud":{"county":"Montgomery County","year":"2027","perUnit":930,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Illinois","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50443,"ratePer100k":198.29562389472684},"propertyCrime":{"total":304359,"ratePer100k":1196.4605156904856},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.559892589920736,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":143697,"monthlyRent":930,"grossRent":930,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IL","down":28739.4,"loan":114957.6,"mortgagePI":745.6128054605031,"monthlyTax":201.17579999999998,"taxRatePct":1.68,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.68% ($1,887 tax ÷ $112,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":64.66365,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IL avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":46.5,"egi":883.5,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":93,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":46.5,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":46.5,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":451.83945,"noi":431.66055,"totalExpenses":1197.452255460503,"cashFlow":-313.95225546050307,"annualCf":-3767.427065526037,"cocReturn":-13.10892734547707,"capRate":3.6047562579594565},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-383.7022554605031,"delta":-70,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-341.85225546050305,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-330.11816796050306,"delta":-16,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-431.9775076184458,"delta":-118,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-374.0269859125143,"delta":-60,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-431.9775076184458,"baselineCashFlow":-313.95225546050307,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.559892589920736,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":85513.07793805166,"totalCashOutlay":137038.35735702753,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IL avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":239331.69708910258,"equityBuilt":134964.59667030902,"netCostOfBuying":30813.160686718504,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":54699.91725133316},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.2586765168186105,"price":143697,"medianIncome":63620,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.68,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.68% ($1,887 tax ÷ $112,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":143697,"secondary":112300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":930,"secondary":723,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.29,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":112300,"high":143697}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":723,"high":930}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":112300,"high":143697}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":723,"high":930}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Montgomery County, IL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Montgomery County, IL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Montgomery County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical home value in Montgomery County is about $143,697 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 44.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical rent in Montgomery County is about $930/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Montgomery County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Montgomery County — roughly $54,700 ahead of renting, with about $134,965 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Montgomery County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Montgomery County's median home value is 2.3x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Montgomery County?","a":"Montgomery County's effective property tax rate is about 1.68% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.68% ($1,887 tax ÷ $112,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $143,697 median home is roughly $201/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Montgomery County, IL was $143,697 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Montgomery County, IL was $930/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Montgomery County, IL has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=montgomery-il","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=montgomery-il"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:25:03.495Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":143697,"countyFmr":930,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IL","stateName":"Illinois","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}