{"area":{"county":"Montgomery County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"montgomery-ar","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":127064},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":132852},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":140301},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":144484},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":149335},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":151900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":153438},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":156396},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":157929},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":159723},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":162075},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":164507},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":166405},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":168738},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":169136},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":169917},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":173239},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":172278},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":175894},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":175108},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":175194}],"latest":175194,"yoy":1.1284987791432646,"fiveYr":37.87854939243216,"sinceStart":270.1933438985737,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":48906,"population":8553,"povertyRate":22.39318262516274,"medianHomeValue":151900,"medianGrossRent":636,"medianPropertyTax":479},"hud":{"county":"Montgomery County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.635831773720557,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":175194,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":35038.8,"loan":140155.2,"mortgagePI":909.0439594413758,"monthlyTax":45.988425,"taxRatePct":0.315,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($479 tax ÷ $151,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":102.1965,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":329.984925,"noi":533.565075,"totalExpenses":1239.0288844413758,"cashFlow":-375.47888444137584,"annualCf":-4505.74661329651,"cocReturn":-12.859306292728375,"capRate":3.654680468509195},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-443.6538844413758,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-402.7488844413758,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-401.02800944137584,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-519.3741364407817,"delta":-144,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-10-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-420.48320611545586,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-519.3741364407817,"baselineCashFlow":-375.47888444137584,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.635831773720557,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":146333.5971622975,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":274689.05447154166,"equityBuilt":147445.6896777733,"netCostOfBuying":33926.70748452419,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":49655.42998395856},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.5822598454177403,"price":175194,"medianIncome":48906,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.315,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($479 tax ÷ $151,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":175194,"secondary":151900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":636,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.43,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":151900,"high":175194}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":636,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":151900,"high":175194}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":636,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Montgomery County, AR is a moderate market — a 16.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Montgomery County, AR a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Montgomery County's 16.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical home value in Montgomery County is about $175,194 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 37.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Montgomery County?","a":"The typical rent in Montgomery County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Montgomery County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Montgomery County — roughly $49,655 ahead of renting, with about $147,446 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Montgomery County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Montgomery County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Montgomery County?","a":"Montgomery County's effective property tax rate is about 0.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($479 tax ÷ $151,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $175,194 median home is roughly $46/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Montgomery County, AR was $175,194 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Montgomery County, AR was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Montgomery County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=montgomery-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=montgomery-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T01:17:42.679Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":175194,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}