{"area":{"county":"Monroe County","state":"NY","stateName":"New York","slug":"monroe-ny","metro":"Rochester, NY MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":188188},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":192780},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":197592},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":205739},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":213366},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":213700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":217263},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":223298},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":230608},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":239089},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":241244},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":249619},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":250789},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":257052},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":265981},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":266368},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":277963},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":275482},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":279028},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":282898},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":284068}],"latest":284068,"yoy":2.1963354834996025,"fiveYr":50.94905094905094,"sinceStart":222.9109592934035,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1416}],"latest":1416,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":76382,"population":753753,"povertyRate":13.645124428818157,"medianHomeValue":213700,"medianGrossRent":1173,"medianPropertyTax":5616},"hud":{"county":"Monroe County","year":"2027","perUnit":1416,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New York","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":140684,"ratePer100k":351.6673251700906},"propertyCrime":{"total":600711,"ratePer100k":1501.5952814126006},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.585284647028256,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":284068,"monthlyRent":1416,"grossRent":1416,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":56813.600000000006,"loan":227254.4,"mortgagePI":1473.967712767519,"monthlyTax":622.10892,"taxRatePct":2.628,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.63% ($5,616 tax ÷ $213,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":118.36166666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":70.8,"egi":1345.2,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":141.6,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":70.8,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":70.8,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1023.6705866666666,"noi":321.5294133333334,"totalExpenses":2497.6382994341857,"cashFlow":-1152.4382994341856,"annualCf":-13829.259593210227,"cocReturn":-24.341459779366605,"capRate":1.3582497711815484},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1258.6382994341857,"delta":-106,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1194.9182994341857,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1182.0287161008523,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1385.7570001029712,"delta":-233,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.1% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1195.9378583009634,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1385.7570001029712,"baselineCashFlow":-1152.4382994341856,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.585284647028256,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":130200.55737664636,"totalCashOutlay":262171.7105874013,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":505614.04889212863,"equityBuilt":299295.52114439686,"netCostOfBuying":19689.78944300444,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":110510.76793364192},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.719043753763976,"price":284068,"medianIncome":76382,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.628,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.63% ($5,616 tax ÷ $213,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":284068,"secondary":213700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.33,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1416,"secondary":1173,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":213700,"high":284068}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1173,"high":1416}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":213700,"high":284068}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1173,"high":1416}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Monroe County, NY is a moderate market — a 16.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Monroe County, NY a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Monroe County's 16.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Monroe County?","a":"The typical home value in Monroe County is about $284,068 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.2% year-over-year, and up 50.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Monroe County?","a":"The typical rent in Monroe County is about $1,416/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Monroe County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Monroe County — roughly $110,511 ahead of renting, with about $299,296 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Monroe County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Monroe County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Monroe County?","a":"Monroe County's effective property tax rate is about 2.63% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 2.63% ($5,616 tax ÷ $213,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $284,068 median home is roughly $622/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Monroe County, NY was $284,068 as of April 2026, up 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Monroe County, NY was $1,416/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Monroe County, NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=monroe-ny","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=monroe-ny"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T13:40:37.320Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Rochester, NY MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Rochester, NY MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":284068,"countyFmr":1416,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Rochester, NY MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"NY","stateName":"New York","cityPages":[{"city":"Rochester","state":"NY"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}