{"area":{"county":"Monroe County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"monroe-ga","metro":"Monroe County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":220099},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":228700},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":236187},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":244555},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":262367},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":271200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":272436},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":271824},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":282418},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":286505},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":283360},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":291056},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":299644},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":308452},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":309223},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":306226},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":327782},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":318729},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":328173},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":324515},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":336676}],"latest":336676,"yoy":2.7133887766869447,"fiveYr":52.965710884647365,"sinceStart":417.0006603092705,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1151}],"latest":1151,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":83183,"population":29664,"povertyRate":12.323396439672225,"medianHomeValue":271200,"medianGrossRent":943,"medianPropertyTax":1886},"hud":{"county":"Monroe County","year":"2027","perUnit":1151,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.873923139322471,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":336676,"monthlyRent":1151,"grossRent":1151,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":67335.2,"loan":269340.8,"mortgagePI":1746.9393020816044,"monthlyTax":194.99151666666663,"taxRatePct":0.695,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,886 tax ÷ $271,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":185.1718,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.550000000000004,"egi":1093.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":610.3633166666666,"noi":483.08668333333344,"totalExpenses":2357.302618748271,"cashFlow":-1263.852618748271,"annualCf":-15166.23142497925,"cocReturn":-22.523481663348814,"capRate":1.7218453943851064},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1350.177618748271,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1298.382618748271,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1310.1455687482708,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1540.3807981502594,"delta":-277,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-04-01) (home values −10.8% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1980-07-01 → 1980-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1356.9328699838557,"delta":-93,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1540.3807981502594,"baselineCashFlow":-1263.852618748271,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.873923139322471,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105833.92764161018,"totalCashOutlay":292144.13145853503,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":610491.0002982665,"equityBuilt":365963.2933830372,"netCostOfBuying":-6483.96192450216,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":112317.88956611234},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.047413534015364,"price":336676,"medianIncome":83183,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.695,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,886 tax ÷ $271,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":336676,"secondary":271200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1151,"secondary":943,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":271200,"high":336676}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":943,"high":1151}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":271200,"high":336676}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":943,"high":1151}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Monroe County, GA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Monroe County, GA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.4x, Monroe County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Monroe County?","a":"The typical home value in Monroe County is about $336,676 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.7% year-over-year, and up 53.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Monroe County?","a":"The typical rent in Monroe County is about $1,151/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Monroe County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Monroe County — roughly $112,318 ahead of renting, with about $365,963 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Monroe County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Monroe County's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Monroe County?","a":"Monroe County's effective property tax rate is about 0.69% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,886 tax ÷ $271,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $336,676 median home is roughly $195/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Monroe County, GA was $336,676 as of April 2026, up 2.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Monroe County, GA was $1,151/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Monroe County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=monroe-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=monroe-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:28:07.455Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Monroe County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Monroe County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":336676,"countyFmr":1151,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Monroe County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}