{"area":{"county":"Monongalia County","state":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","slug":"monongalia-wv","metro":"Morgantown, WV MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":240137},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":246208},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":246850},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":263711},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":265311},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":267700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":268582},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":270642},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":270836},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":275166},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":291310},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":279772},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":284303},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":285250},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":293410},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":298063},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":300234},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":305023},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":299846},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":297299},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":307483}],"latest":307483,"yoy":2.414450062284751,"fiveYr":28.044824412731067,"sinceStart":422.63695545017254,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1143}],"latest":1143,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":65346,"population":107163,"povertyRate":19.70709427592712,"medianHomeValue":267700,"medianGrossRent":987,"medianPropertyTax":1248},"hud":{"county":"Monongalia County","year":"2027","perUnit":1143,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"West Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7321,"ratePer100k":206.81036328679608},"propertyCrime":{"total":30696,"ratePer100k":867.1289320381767},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":22.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":5.0691806601236955,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":307483,"monthlyRent":1143,"grossRent":1143,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WV","down":61496.600000000006,"loan":245986.4,"mortgagePI":1595.463108216677,"monthlyTax":119.40589833333333,"taxRatePct":0.466,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,248 tax ÷ $267,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":133.24263333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.150000000000006,"egi":1085.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":114.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":481.2485316666666,"noi":604.6014683333333,"totalExpenses":2076.7116398833437,"cashFlow":-990.8616398833437,"annualCf":-11890.339678600125,"cocReturn":-19.33495458057864,"capRate":2.359550810939141},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1076.5866398833437,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1025.1516398833437,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1024.172298216677,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1243.4122053737904,"delta":-253,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.7% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1994-01-01 → 1994-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1090.8840734062587,"delta":-100,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1243.4122053737904,"baselineCashFlow":-990.8616398833437,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.0691806601236955,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105098.33127225057,"totalCashOutlay":247447.76229372955,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":434658.8522364339,"equityBuilt":211334.01498811378,"netCostOfBuying":97610.34730561578,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":7487.983966634783},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.705460165886206,"price":307483,"medianIncome":65346,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.466,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,248 tax ÷ $267,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":307483,"secondary":267700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1143,"secondary":987,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":267700,"high":307483}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":987,"high":1143}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":267700,"high":307483}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":987,"high":1143}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Monongalia County, WV is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Monongalia County, WV a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.4x, Monongalia County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Monongalia County?","a":"The typical home value in Monongalia County is about $307,483 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.4% year-over-year, and up 28.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Monongalia County?","a":"The typical rent in Monongalia County is about $1,143/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Monongalia County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Monongalia County — roughly $7,488 ahead of renting, with about $211,334 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Monongalia County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Monongalia County's median home value is 4.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Monongalia County?","a":"Monongalia County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,248 tax ÷ $267,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $307,483 median home is roughly $119/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Monongalia County, WV was $307,483 as of April 2026, up 2.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Monongalia County, WV was $1,143/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Monongalia County, WV has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=monongalia-wv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=monongalia-wv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:16:33.731Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Morgantown, WV MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgantown, WV MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":307483,"countyFmr":1143,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Morgantown, WV MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}