{"area":{"county":"Mille Lacs County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"mille-lacs-mn","metro":"Mille Lacs County, MN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":238794},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":243819},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":250016},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":256420},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":261659},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":258300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":257812},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":259210},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":265447},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":266685},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":267327},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":269234},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":271449},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":274614},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":277445},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":280169},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":281139},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":283334},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":285816},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":286198},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":287723}],"latest":287723,"yoy":2.3419020484529005,"fiveYr":20.490045813546402,"sinceStart":329.96996278972455,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1124}],"latest":1124,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72729,"population":27125,"povertyRate":10.38454323766648,"medianHomeValue":258300,"medianGrossRent":903,"medianPropertyTax":2698},"hud":{"county":"Mille Lacs County","year":"2027","perUnit":1124,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.798828152396716,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":287723,"monthlyRent":1124,"grossRent":1124,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":57544.600000000006,"loan":230178.4,"mortgagePI":1492.9327211111738,"monthlyTax":250.55877916666665,"taxRatePct":1.045,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($2,698 tax ÷ $258,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":129.47535000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.2,"egi":1067.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":112.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":604.8341291666668,"noi":462.96587083333316,"totalExpenses":2097.7668502778406,"cashFlow":-1029.9668502778406,"annualCf":-12359.602203334089,"cocReturn":-21.478300663023266,"capRate":1.9308815944502171},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1114.2668502778406,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1063.6868502778407,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1062.3356877778406,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1266.2875781054202,"delta":-236,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1138.741730358628,"delta":-109,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1266.2875781054202,"baselineCashFlow":-1029.9668502778406,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.798828152396716,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":103351.28989502156,"totalCashOutlay":241451.0328375979,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":373526.7710504436,"equityBuilt":164553.6175831026,"netCostOfBuying":134442.0152544953,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":31090.725359473727},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9560972926892988,"price":287723,"medianIncome":72729,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.045,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($2,698 tax ÷ $258,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":287723,"secondary":258300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1124,"secondary":903,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":258300,"high":287723}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":903,"high":1124}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":258300,"high":287723}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":903,"high":1124}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Mille Lacs County, MN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Mille Lacs County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.3x, Mille Lacs County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Mille Lacs County?","a":"The typical home value in Mille Lacs County is about $287,723 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.3% year-over-year, and up 20.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Mille Lacs County?","a":"The typical rent in Mille Lacs County is about $1,124/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Mille Lacs County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Mille Lacs County by about $31,091 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Mille Lacs County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Mille Lacs County's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Mille Lacs County?","a":"Mille Lacs County's effective property tax rate is about 1.04% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($2,698 tax ÷ $258,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $287,723 median home is roughly $251/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Mille Lacs County, MN was $287,723 as of April 2026, up 2.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Mille Lacs County, MN was $1,124/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Mille Lacs County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mille-lacs-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mille-lacs-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:26:54.399Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Mille Lacs County, MN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Mille Lacs County, MN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":287723,"countyFmr":1124,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Mille Lacs County, MN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}