{"area":{"county":"Miami-Dade County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"miami-dade-fl","metro":"Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":359536},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":379469},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":398549},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":431184},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":452378},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":463000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":461588},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":457917},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":473081},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":483272},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":489868},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":503856},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":501387},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":497420},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":527857},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":502689},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":503932},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":499036},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":502613},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":498139},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":501657}],"latest":501657,"yoy":-0.45144979878237546,"fiveYr":39.52900404966401,"sinceStart":493.17851272894967,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2564}],"latest":2564,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71753,"population":2738356,"povertyRate":14.724289505285162,"medianHomeValue":463000,"medianGrossRent":1829,"medianPropertyTax":3744},"hud":{"county":"Miami-Dade County","year":"2027","perUnit":2564,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":95375,"ratePer100k":203.24971087928412},"propertyCrime":{"total":410246,"ratePer100k":874.2582530996885},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.889946597164087,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":501657,"monthlyRent":2564,"grossRent":2564,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":100331.40000000001,"loan":401325.6,"mortgagePI":2602.9902026409704,"monthlyTax":338.2004275,"taxRatePct":0.809,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,744 tax ÷ $463,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":438.949875,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":128.20000000000002,"egi":2435.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":256.40000000000003,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":128.20000000000002,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":128.20000000000002,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1289.9503025000001,"noi":1145.8496975,"totalExpenses":3892.9405051409703,"cashFlow":-1457.1405051409704,"annualCf":-17485.686061691646,"cocReturn":-17.42792990199643,"capRate":2.7409557466555836},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1649.4405051409708,"delta":-192,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1534.0605051409705,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1566.8779738909705,"delta":-110,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1869.1755088069974,"delta":-412,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −31.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2064.10929345623,"delta":-607,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2064.10929345623,"baselineCashFlow":-1457.1405051409704,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.889946597164087,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":235758.63637974666,"totalCashOutlay":440565.0045329651,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":799769.609503635,"equityBuilt":435416.2375140274,"netCostOfBuying":105480.1670189377,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":130278.46936080896},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.991442866500355,"price":501657,"medianIncome":71753,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.809,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,744 tax ÷ $463,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":501657,"secondary":463000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2564,"secondary":1829,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.4,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":463000,"high":501657}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1829,"high":2564}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":463000,"high":501657}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1829,"high":2564}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Miami-Dade County, FL is a moderate market — a 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Miami-Dade County, FL a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Miami-Dade County's 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Miami-Dade County?","a":"The typical home value in Miami-Dade County is about $501,657 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.5% year-over-year, and up 39.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Miami-Dade County?","a":"The typical rent in Miami-Dade County is about $2,564/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Miami-Dade County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Miami-Dade County — roughly $130,278 ahead of renting, with about $435,416 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Miami-Dade County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Miami-Dade County's median home value is 7.0x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Miami-Dade County?","a":"Miami-Dade County's effective property tax rate is about 0.81% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,744 tax ÷ $463,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $501,657 median home is roughly $338/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Miami-Dade County, FL was $501,657 as of April 2026, down 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Miami-Dade County, FL was $2,564/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Miami-Dade County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=miami-dade-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=miami-dade-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:46:01.172Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":501657,"countyFmr":2564,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}