{"area":{"county":"Mercer County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"mercer-pa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":145755},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":150484},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":154663},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":160095},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":162933},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":164000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":165966},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":167656},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":171065},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":175344},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":177590},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":179682},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":183386},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":185511},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":188649},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":191735},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":192443},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":194350},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":196501},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":198921},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":200009}],"latest":200009,"yoy":3.9315537587753253,"fiveYr":37.22273678432987,"sinceStart":278.5324955524433,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1028}],"latest":1028,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59976,"population":109257,"povertyRate":13.158356912869548,"medianHomeValue":164000,"medianGrossRent":843,"medianPropertyTax":1936},"hud":{"county":"Mercer County","year":"2027","perUnit":1028,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.534182683308654,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":200009,"monthlyRent":1028,"grossRent":1028,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":40001.8,"loan":160007.2,"mortgagePI":1037.803653572098,"monthlyTax":196.67551666666668,"taxRatePct":1.18,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.18% ($1,936 tax ÷ $164,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":73.33663333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.400000000000006,"egi":976.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.80000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.400000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.400000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":475.61215000000004,"noi":500.98785,"totalExpenses":1513.415803572098,"cashFlow":-536.815803572098,"annualCf":-6441.789642865177,"cocReturn":-16.10374943843821,"capRate":3.0057918393672285},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-613.915803572098,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-567.6558035720981,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-555.1499619054314,"delta":-18,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-701.0928076769712,"delta":-164,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-575.1242422241468,"delta":-38,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-701.0928076769712,"baselineCashFlow":-536.815803572098,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.534182683308654,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94524.13346270655,"totalCashOutlay":176151.86074742343,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":311510.28281262517,"equityBuilt":166243.78881718699,"netCostOfBuying":49909.87193023645,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":44614.261532470104},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.334817260237428,"price":200009,"medianIncome":59976,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.18,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.18% ($1,936 tax ÷ $164,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":200009,"secondary":164000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1028,"secondary":843,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164000,"high":200009}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":843,"high":1028}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164000,"high":200009}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":843,"high":1028}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Mercer County, PA is a moderate market — a 16.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Mercer County, PA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Mercer County's 16.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Mercer County?","a":"The typical home value in Mercer County is about $200,009 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 37.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Mercer County?","a":"The typical rent in Mercer County is about $1,028/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Mercer County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Mercer County — roughly $44,614 ahead of renting, with about $166,244 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Mercer County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Mercer County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Mercer County?","a":"Mercer County's effective property tax rate is about 1.18% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.18% ($1,936 tax ÷ $164,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $200,009 median home is roughly $197/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Mercer County, PA was $200,009 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Mercer County, PA was $1,028/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Mercer County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mercer-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mercer-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:17:53.464Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":200009,"countyFmr":1028,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}